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5/15/08 Coffee futures prices are holding
support this week. The International Coffee Organization expects
127 million bags of world production in 2008-09 and consumption
to be 125 million bags in 2008 and 127 million bags in 2009.
Coffee option premiums are high.
5/9/08 Coffee futures prices are up this
week to the top of the 3 month long 15 cent channel that it has
been trading in. The estimates from Brazil for the crop this
year are predicting 45.5 million bags but private estimates are
higher at 50 million bags. Coffee option premiums are high.
5/1/08 Coffee futures prices have been down
again this week in spite of rumors that Brazil was going to pay
farmers a subsidy to not sell their coffee. Summer in the
Northern hemisphere is Winter in Brazil so the frost season is
coming up soon. Coffee option premiums are high.
4/25/08 Coffee futures prices have been
selling off this week based on the potential huge Brazilian
harvest and the weak overall commodity market. The US Dollar has
been rallying this week and has a direct inverse relationship
with many commodity markets. Coffee option premiums are high.
4/18/08 Coffee futures prices have had a
volatile two sided trading pattern this week. The funds were
buying aggressively pushing prices higher but the idea of a huge
Brazilian and Vietnamese crop is putting a lid on prices. Coffee
option premium are high.
4/11/08 Coffee futures prices are trapped in
a sideways consolidation pattern in expectation of Brazil's
harvest. Brazil estimates its harvest will be 44.2 million bags
but independent analysts say it will be higher. Brazil has a
habit of holding coffee off of the market in order to prop up
prices. Brazil is to coffee futures what OPEC is to crude oil
futures. Coffee option premiums are high.
4/4/08 Coffee futures prices had their
lowest close in 4 months based on Brazil getting ready to
harvest soon and a lack of any news. The summer in the US is the
freeze season for Brazil so expect volatility in the coming
months. Coffee option premiums are high.
3/28/08 Coffee futures prices are
consolidation sideways to down this week with no real
fundamental news to move the markets. Commodities are soft in
general right now. Coffee option premiums are high.
3/21/08 Coffee futures prices kept falling
this week as Wall Street hedge funds and commodity funds
liquidated futures positions to cover margin calls in stocks and
to pay back borrowed money. The Bear Stearns issue took the
confidence from investors. The Fed's 75 basis point cut
surprised investors because a full 100 basis point cut was
expected. Coffee option premiums are high.
3/14/08 Coffee futures prices rallied back
from the collapse in prices last week as small speculators and
the commodity funds moved back into the market. Also helping
prices was the new low in the US Dollar in expectation of
another 50 to 75 basis point interest rate cut. Summer in the US
is winter in Brazil so volatility often increases in the coming
months. Coffee option premiums are high.
3/7/08 Coffee futures prices collapsed as
the record long funds liquidated futures. Helping the fall was a
broad based commodity price corrections. Major US roasters
Folgers and Maxwell House raised prices again and an economic
recession may lessen demand. Brazil is expecting a large coffee
crop in the next few months. Coffee option premiums are very
high.
2/29/08 Coffee futures prices hit another
contract high this week after a brief pullback. Vietnam is still
hoarding supplies and Brazil is worried about continued dry
weather affecting the coffee yields. The softs sector, excluding
orange juice and lumber seem to be playing catch up with the
other commodities like grains, metals and energies who are at
all time highs. Coffee's all time high is over $3. Coffee option
premiums are very high.
2/22/08 Coffee futures prices hit new
contract highs this week based on the lack of Brazilian moisture
and major fund buying. The weak US Dollar and a perceived draw
down in global supplies is also supporting coffee prices. Coffee
futures prices are still around 50% below their all time high
and look cheap to speculators compared to grains, metals and
energies which are all at or near all time highs. Vietnam, the
largest producer of robusta coffee, is currently hoarding
supplies artificially elevating prices for the second most
popular drink in the world. Coffee option
premiums are high.
2/15/08 Coffee futures prices are still
rallying and hit contract highs this week. Brazil is having lack
of moisture issues and the drought at the end of last year may
have already put a dent in yields. The weak US Dollar and fund
buying is also helping push prices higher. Coffee option
premiums are high.
2/8/08 Coffee futures prices broke out to a
contract high after expectations of a slightly smaller Brazilian
coffee crop. Coffee futures have been a fund favorite with the
other soft commodities such as cocoa, sugar and cotton recently.
Many other commodities are near all time highs but the softs are
mostly near the lows to average ranges for prices. Coffee option
premiums are high.
2/1/08 Coffee futures prices have been
trading toward the upper end of their twelve month range based
on unknown damage to the Brazilian coffee crop caused by the
drought during the flowering stage. Brazil produces about 1/3 of
all of the world's coffee. Coffee option premiums are high.
-T & K Futures and Options Inc.
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