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Coffee futures and options quick facts:
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37,500 pound contract size
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One cent move equals $375
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Trades March, May July, September,
December
2/3/12 Coffee futures prices sold off this week in spite of the
U.S. dollar continuing its slide. The USD is now down 3 full
basis points over the last few weeks which is helping to push
many commodity markets higher. Friday's strong jobs report is
also helping commodity prices strengthen. It also seems that bad
European Union headlines are having less affect on the markets
and the worst case may already be factored into many of these
markets.
1/27/12 Coffee futures prices are trading mostly sideways again
this week in spite of the fact that most other commodity markets
rallied higher. The bullish news was the weakening U.S. dollar
that continues its 2 week slide of about 3 full basis points
which helps push dollar denominated commodity markets higher.
The FOMC meeting left rates unchanged and opened the door for
more quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve Bank. European
sovereign debt issues and saber rattling from Iran seemed to
have little affect on the markets.
1/20/12 Coffee futures prices traded mostly sideways this week
in spite of the recent influx of capital from hedge funds and
other large speculators into the commodity markets and more
specifically the soft sector. The recent successful debt
auctions from Spain and France helped stabilize the European
Union for the near term and in turn weaken the U.S. dollar.
1/6/12 Coffee futures prices traded mostly sideways to down this
week. The U.S. dollar rose to new contract highs as concerns
over European banks pushed the Eurocurrency down to a 16 month
low. New tensions with Iran and its nuclear program has pushed
American and British aircraft carriers to enter the Persian Gulf
and the Straits of Hormuz and in turn pushed crude oil prices to
the highs.
12/23/11 Coffee futures prices traded mostly sideways this week
while many other commodity markets rallied as the U.S. dollar
sold off from its contract highs in the thin volume holiday
trade that is typical for this week and next. Iran tensions
pushed oil higher and positive economic reports out of the U.S.
and Europe also pushed investors back into risk assets like
stocks and commodities.
12/16/11 Coffee futures prices sold off this week along with
most other commodity markets. The lack of an additional
quantitative easing announcement by Bernanke and the Federal
Reserve Bank at the FOMC meeting surprised some market
participants and pressured the markets. More bad news out of
Europe and very positive news from the U.S. economy pushed more
assets in to the U.S. dollar as it hit another high kept the
stock markets trading down to sideways as well.
12/9/11 Coffee futures prices traded mostly down this week again
as most of the commodity and stock markets took their
directional cues from the European headlines again. In other
words, bad news out of the European Union pressured the markets
and good news helped push markets higher. The week ended on a
positive note as the European Union summit yielded ideas of
tightening anti-deficit rules and punishments for member
countries. This heartened the markets as it symbolized the idea
that forced accountability of member nations may curb government
spending.
12/2/11 Coffee futures prices sold off this week in spite of the
fact that many other commodity markets rallied. Crude oil broke
through $100 a barrel as Iranian students broke into the United
Kingdon embassy in Tehran. Positive job growth in the U.S. and
other encouraging economic data helped many commodities push
higher. Also adding to the bullish tone was stability in Europe
and a sell off in the U.S. dollar.
11/25/11 Coffee futures prices traded mostly down along with the
majority of the commodity markets. The U.S. dollar index rallied
almost to its October 4th high which is coincidentally when many
commodity markets' made their recent contract lows. The recent
German bond auction was a failure and couldn't managed to sell
all of the bonds issued as more problems out of Italy and Greece
hurt the European Union as investors flee to cash and the U.S.
treasury markets.
11/18/11 Coffee futures prices traded mostly sideways as more
problems came out of the European Union suppressing most
commodity rally attempts. The talk of Italy potentially
defaulting on its debt and Italian bond yields breaching the
critical 7% area hindered most bullish support for most markets.
The European Central Bank chose to purchase Italian and Spanish
bonds to support the markets and prove that they would support
the teetering European Union and its weak links from default.
11/4/11 Coffee futures prices traded mostly sideways this week
as more uncertainty about Greek and Italian solvency added to
European Union woes. Also adding to the uncertainty was the
bankruptcy declaration by MF Global who supposedly was
overleveraged in European high risk assets and it was a very bad
bet. This uncertainty pushed assets towards the U.S. dollar and
U.S. treasuries pushing both higher on the week. The strong
dollar often depresses dollar denominated assets like
commodities.
10/14/11 Coffee futures prices rose again this week as the
positive rhetoric out of the European Union and the idea that
the EU has plenty of assets to back up its support of failing
economys like Greece, Spain and Italy has led investors back
into stocks and commodities. The U.S. dollar continues its fall
which is also helping out the dollar demoninated commodity
markets become more bullish.
10/7/11 Coffee futures prices rallied this week from its lows.
The market moving news of the week was Moodys' cutting the
senior debt and deposit ratings of 12 UK financial institutions
while at the same time the European Commission put together a
possible coordinated European bank recapitalization plan to
stabilize weak links in the financial chain like Greece and
Italy. Market volatility continues to be extreme in stock and
commodity futures contracts.
9/30/11 Coffee futures prices came down again this week along
with most other commodity markets as more problems with Greece
and its potential default to its bond holders and other European
woes has led to an extremely volatile trading environment for
stocks and commodity investors. The U.S. dollar is also near its
recent highs which is also hindering the bulls for now.
9/23/11 Coffee futures prices sold off this week along with just
about every other commodity as more problems out of the European
Union and Federal Reserve Bank chairman Ben Bernanke saying that
the U.S. economy was probably going to slip back into a
recession. This fear of a double dip global recession sent
investors fleeing out of the stock and commodity markets around
the globe and strengthened the U.S. dollar significantly.
9/16/11 Coffee futures prices sold off this week along with most
other commodity contracts as more European soveriegn debt
problems (Greece) and more bad economic reports out of the
United States have come together to add more uncertainty about
the world's economic future. The weakening U.S. dollar did
little to prop up commodity prices. Volatility can be extreme at
times as the market reacts to economic reports.
9/1/11 Coffee futures prices rallied again this week near the
highs in spite of the fact that the U.S. dollar continues to
stregthen as the European Union has more problems. Helping the
coffee market is talk from the Federal Reserve Bank about the
potential for a quantitative easing number three.
8/19/11 Coffee futures prices had an extremely volatile week
along with most of the rest of the commodity markets. The stock
market indices were quite volatile and affected most other asset
classes as European Union problems resurfaced again and put many
investors in doubt about future U.S. and global growth prospects
over the near term.
8/5/11 Coffee futures prices have been mostly sideways this
week. This week's main stories are about Europe's continued
problems and the foreseeable end of the European Union as the
PIIGS continue to harm. A slower global economy and the 10%
correction in the U.S. stock markets have many commodity
investors heading for the sidelines.
7/29/11 Coffee futures prices have been trading mostly sideways
this week as the United States faces a political impasse on
raising the debt ceiling. This has led to talk about the U.S.
losing its AAA credit rating and potentially defaulting on its
debt obligations. The U.S. dollar is trading sideways near its
lows because things seem to be even worse in Europe. Many of the
other commodity markets have also been trading sideways for the
most part.
7/15/11 Coffee futures prices are trading sideways this week as
Ben Bernanke left the door open for QE3 or printing more U.S.
dollars to be used for buying treasuries to help bouy the
economy. Also the European Bank Authority said 8 out of 90 banks
failed their stress tests this week. 5 were from Spain, 2 from
Greece and one from Austria. Warm weather in Brazil has
diminished freeze fears for now.
7/1/11 Coffee futures prices rallied by about 20 cents per pound
this week as the U.S. dollar lost about 2 basis points once the
markets decided that the greek soveriegn debt issues would be
resolved for the short term in spite of the agreement that most
analyst share that Greece is doomed to be bankrupt sooner or
later. Many commodity sectors look to be selling off such as the
precious metals, energies and grains seem to be trending
sideways to down over the near term.
6/24/11 Coffee futures prices are trading mostly sideways again
this week in spite of the collapse in crude oil prices. The
Obama administration decided to release oil from the strategic
petroleum reserve to help pressure energy prices. The
International Energy Agency plans to add 2 million barrels a day
from non-OPEC reserves. Also pressuring the markets is the idea
that Greece will default sooner or later and may be released
from the European Union in order to strengthen the Euro. Reports
of slower growth out of India and China is also pressuring
commodity prices in general.
6/10/11 Coffee futures prices traded mostly sideways this week
as a lack of any freeze threats and plenty of supply on the
global market. Coffee option premiums are coming down as
volatility moderates after the extreme volatility seen back in
May.
6/3/11 Coffee futures prices rallied this week in spite of quite
a bit of bad U.S. economic data in manufacturing, housing and
jobs has consumer confidence falling along with the stock market
and most of the commodity markets. Many economists fear a soft
patch in the economy this summer and a slowing of Asian demand
for many commodities as attempts to battle inflation by raising
rates are slowing growth.
5/27/11 Coffee futures prices are trading sideways along with
most of the other commodity markets as large speculators such as
hedge funds seem to be exiting the riskier assets. The lack of
aggressive buying and selling of these futures contracts has
caused many of them to trade sideways in small trading ranges.
The recent 3 cent rally in the US dollar should have been more
of a catalyst pushing commodity prices higher but this has
largely been ignored. This is most likely caused by the
perception that China's economy may be slowing down as well.
5/20/11 Coffee futures prices sold off again this week as the US
dollar continues to strengthen and investors seem to be heading
for the exit when it comes to their riskier assets and are
getting in to cash and cash equivalents. The volatility in many
markets has dropped considerably as some like silver, gold,
crude oil and cotton are consolidating sideways. This in turn is
bringing option premiums back down to more normal levels for
some markets as this volatility premium is taken out of the
options.
5/13/11 Coffee futures prices sold off again this week as the
market digests the idea that Greece may default on its debt just
a year after this same predicament that forced Germany to infuse
money into the system. This news crushed the Euro Currency and
pushed the US dollar higher which in turn hurt most commodity
prices and pushed volatility much higher. Quantitative easing is
set to end this summer which might be why the stock market is
soft in spite of energy prices coming down violently. Option
premiums are very high for most commodities because of the
recent volatility.
5/6/11 Coffee futures prices sold off this week along with most
of the other commodity markets. A cocktail of bearish happenings
have been a catalyst initiating a huge exodus out of risk assets
to reduce investors' risk exposure. The ECB president Trichet
let the market know that a ECB rate hike is not a done deal in
July which in turn pushed the US dollar up a full basis point.
Also hitting the markets were the CME group's increase in silver
margin requirements which totalled 5 increases over the last 2
weeks which pushed weak longs out of the market and caused
silver to correct by about 25% making it the worst sell off
since the early 1980's. Lastly, many US economic reports have
been weaker than expected which is weakening the confidence of a
strong economic recovery in the US over the near term.
4/29/11 Coffee futures prices rallied about 10 cents per pound
this week. The FOMC meeting left Bernanke signalling that QE 3
would not happen and QE 2 would end in June and that interest
rates will probably stay on hold for a while leaving the US
dollar to get crushed as other countries plan on continued
interest rates hikes to fight inflation and attract foreign
assets to the stronger currencies.
4/22/11 Coffee futures prices rallied about 9 cents per pound
this week along with most of the other commodities as the US
dollar hit levels not seen since the "Great Recession" summer of
2008. The market seems to be factoring in an unwillingness by
the United States' federal reserve bank to raise interest rates
in spite of the fact that many other economies like Australia,
China and the European Union are raising interest rates. This
rising interest rate environment draws money away from US
investments into stronger currency assets.
4/8/11 Coffee futures prices rallied about 19 cents this week
along with many other commodity markets as the bulls seem to
have control for now. Gold hit an all time high and crude oil
broke through $110 a barrel pulling other commodities with them.
The US dollar coincidentally hit new contract lows this week as
well. The new earthquake in Japan seems to be a non-event this
time for the markets.
4/1/11 Coffee futures prices are still trading mostly sideways
this week . Coffee producers are fighting higher fuel costs and
other costs of production are increasing. Coffee prices are
sideways at about 2.61 cents per pound and coffee option
premiums are high.
3/25/11 Coffee futures prices were mostly sideways this week in
spite of the fact that the risk trades like commodities were the
weekly theme. The Japan nuclear scare seems to have been averted
for the most part and the markets factored in a worst case
scenario which caused the massive sell off last week. The
tensions in the Middle East seem to be growing which pushed
crude oil prices over the $105 level. The US dollar has been
sliding for most of the month of March which is also helping
push most commodity futures prices higher.
3/18/11 Coffee futures prices came down this week along with
most of the commodity and stock markets as investors try to
figure out what affects the tsunami and its destruction of the
cities and nuclear plants in Japan will have over the short,
medium and long terms. Japan's economy is the 3rd largest in the
world and demand destruction for some commodities may occur.
3/11/11 Coffee futures prices are correcting from 14 year highs
after a volatile few weeks in the commodity markets.
Geopolitical issues in the Middle East put the bias in the
commodity markets in the hands of the bulls and the buy the
rumor sell the fact side of the equation and China's first trade
deficit in many years seems to be behind the massive liquidation
of most of the commodity markets. Tight supplies of coffee and
the fact that Vietnamese exports are having problems finding
enough supply may limit sell offs.
3/4/11 Coffee futures prices rallied another 15 cents this week
as the world wonders about the violence and ubiquitous unrest in
northern Africa and the middle east. Egyptians got rid of their
despot. Libya is trying along with Bahrain, Tunisia and others
which is pushing crude oil prices sky high again. Higher oil
prices are very inflationary and helps push the bias of all
dollar denominated commodities higher.
2/11/11 Coffee futures prices continue to rally with most of the
soft markets this week. The uprising in Egypt by the people to
oust the long time president out of power has turned violent and
caused many commodity markets to become very volatile because of
the belief that turmoil may spread to other Muslim countries
near Egypt. On February 10th the ousted president appointed his
vice president as ruler much to the dismay of the protesters.
2/4/11 Coffee futures prices are still running higher this week
along with most of the softs markets like cotton, cocoa and
sugar. The soft complex has been the strength of the CRB Index
for a while now and this trend looks to continue as fundamentals
are also bullish.
1/28/11 Coffee futures prices are still making new highs this
week as the soft markets seem to be bucking the sell off trend
affecting most of the other commodity markets. A smaller coffee
crop is expected and demand has remained robust. New highs could
be in the making over the next few weeks.
1/21/11 Coffee futures prices bucked the trend of most of the
other commodity markets as they sold off violently in
anticipation that China will step up its efforts to quell
inflation by making it harder to get money out of its main banks
by increasing reserve requirements and raising interest rates.
1/7/11 Coffee futures prices are correcting from highs in 2010
not seen since the 1997 bull run. Heavy rains in Columbia and
Central America are hurting yields but coffee has been selling
off sharply this week along with most of the other commodity
markets as the US dollar continues to strengthen. The current La
Nina is the strongest in 50 years and will most likely cause
many weather abnormalities.
12/24/10 Coffee futures prices rallied this week but the week
before and after Christmas are notoriously thinly traded as the
volumes dry up. Persistent supply concerns and speculative
buying has been pushing prices up. Columbian output may be
suffering because of wet weather and rising costs of production.
Columbia is the largest producer of mild unwashed arabica beans.
La Nina is the strongest in 50 years and can cause drought in
South American coffee growing regions.
12/17/10 Coffee futures prices continued to climb towards the
highs this week as the improving economy usually makes coffee
consumers buy better quality coffee. The wet season in Costa
Rica was a month longer than normal hurting the drying process.
12/3/10 Coffee futures prices continue to come down in spite of
the strength in many other commodity markets. The supply
information coming out of South America seems to be ample and
the recent strength in the US dollar is also pressuring the
coffee markets recently.
11/19/10 Coffee futures prices sold off again this week as China
raised interest rates in an attempt to slow its overheating
economy and inflation. Also pressuring the commodity markets was
the idea that Ireland may default on loans might lead to more
Eurozone economic problems coming soon.
11/12/10 Coffee futures prices are correcting significantly
after the huge run up in prices. The most prevelant perception
is that the global recovery may be stalling based on worse than
expected economic reports as of late and the idea that China
will hike interest rates to battle inflation which should push
commodities lower.
11/5/10 Coffee futures prices are still heading higher as the
FOMC meeting yielded more quantitative easing by the Fed.
Printing more money should lead to high inflation or
hyperinflation for the next few years. Especially when you
consider the fact that the Fed bought so much of the toxic real
estate assets from Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. It makes sense
that they won't raise rates to fight inflation because it would
cost the government billions of dollars.
10/22/10 Coffee futures prices are still heading higher this
week in spite of new crop harvest supplies hitting the market
and Brazilian coffee is about to be approved for delivery
against ICE coffee futures contracts. On the bull side supplies
in Columbia and Central America are not as large as originally
expected and heavy rains in Vietnamese growing areas may hurt
yields.
10/15/10 Coffee futures prices are trading sideways near the
recent highs this week as a lack of any new news is keeping the
market range bound for now. Coffee options volatility premiums
are high.
10/8/10 Coffee futures prices are still running higher as the
driest weather in 4 years in the Minas Gerais region of Brazil
may affect the flowering period for coffee which is quickly
nearing. This can affect the size and quality of the cherry and
lower next years crop. Storm damage to Mexico and other parts of
Central America are still not yet known. The Amazon River is
currently at its lowest level in 47 years which can greatly
hamper shipping.
9/24/10 Coffee futures prices are starting to come down this
week as wet weather in Brazil is helping the coffee crop there
with its flowering stage for the 2011 crop. Higher supplies from
Vietnam and Columbia are also pressuring prices.
9/17/10 Coffee futures prices continue to rally to new contract
highs as commodity funds have been massive buyers of soft
contracts like coffee, cotton and sugar recently. Coffee options
have very high premiums because of the recently extreme
volatility.
9/10/10 Coffee futures prices rallied to their highest price
since 1997 as the commodity funds have been large buyers of
foods and fiber contracts in an attempt to diversify from
equities recently. Also pushing prices is the idea that wet
weather in Colombia will lead to fungus issues.
8/20/10 Coffee futures prices are breaking through the 12 year
highs this week as short term supply tightness in Brazil and
Vietman; Heavy rains delaying the Malaysian crop by 60-90 days
overcomes the idea that Brazil is about ready to dump a record
crop onto the global market.
8/13/10 Coffee futures prices are coming down from the recent 12
year highs as harvest is about to commence with Brazil and
Vietnam are expecting huge crops and exports are relatively
weak. Coffee managed to rise about 10 cents this week.
8/6/10 Coffee futures prices are trading sideways after making
new highs. Excellent weather in Brazil and a very large may keep
a top on any violent rallies over the near term. Coffee option
premiums are high.
8/2/10 Coffee futures prices made a new high in spite of the
near ideal weather in Brazil and the expectations of a bumper
harvest. Vietnam was hit with very heavy rains which may
negatively impact the coffee yields from that region.
7/24/10 Coffee futures prices are trading sideways in a roughly
15 cent range. The recent sell off in the US Dollar is lending
strength to many of the commodity markets and the soft sector is
beginning to show signs of strength. Coffee option premiums are
high.
7/10/10 Coffee futures prices were range bound this week. As
slow demand and no expectations for any frost in South America
pressured prices. The International Coffee Organization
estimated that world production would be 120.6 million bags for
2009-10. The estimation for the Brazilian harvest is 50 million
bags.
7/2/10 Coffee futures prices sold off this week along with many
other commodities as the idea is permeating the markets of a
global slow down and potentially a double dip recession in the
United States. The recent huge run up in prices may have gotten
ahead of itself.
6/25/10 Coffee futures prices rallied again this week in spite
of the recent USDA estimate that worldwide production would be
up 11% to a record high of 139.7 million bags and world ending
stocks were up 5 million bags to 36.3 million bags. Vietnam
producers are holding back supplies from the market in an
attempt to increase prices. Current prices are at a 2 year high.
6/11/10 Coffee futures prices rallied again this week as the
International Coffee Organization estimates 134 million bags of
world production 134 million bags of consumptions for 2010.
Total exports are down 8% for the first 7 months of 2009-2010
from a year ago.
6/4/10 Coffee futures prices rallied some this week as a larger
increase in exports to India and the potential damage to the
coffee in Guatemala from tropical storm Agatha which caused
massive flooding helped push prices.
5/28/10 Coffee futures prices rallied this week as the Brazilian
coffee farmers have asked the government to stockpile coffee
after this season's harvest to help prop up prices. This year's
crop is expected to be quite large.
5/21/10 Coffee futures prices came down with the rest of the
commodity markets this week as the European problems stemming
from Greece and the other PIIGS are expected to hurt demand for
many commodities. Investors seem to be choosing cash over stocks
and commodities for now.
5/14/10 Coffee futures prices rallied this week in spite of many
commodities selling off as people question whether the European
bail out of Greece will work or just prolong the inevitable
defaulting on government debt. The strong US Dollar may keep a
lid on prices.
5/7/10 Coffee futures prices fell this week in the expectation
of a Brazilian crop estimated at 47 million bags. Also
pressuring prices is the lack of any potentially freezing
temperatures over the near term. The problems in Greece are also
decreasing investor risk appetites for now.
4/25/10 Coffee futures prices rallied this week from support
levels as the Winter season begins down in South America. Much
of the softs sector rallied this week as a broad based commodity
rally may be begining in spite of the stronger US Dollar.
4/16/10 Coffee futures prices have been selling off this week in
spite of estimates that demand will outstrip production over the
next few months. The International Coffee Organization estimates
that world production for 2009-2010 will fall from 123 to 121
million bags because of coffee production problems in Central
America.
4/9/10 Coffee futures prices rallied again this week to a nine
week high based on the Brazilian winter frost season speculation
and the idea that many global economies are beginning to
rebound. Coffee option premiums are high.
3/27/10 Coffee futures prices rose this week to a 4 week high as
the approaching winter season in Brazil has many speculators
taking a bullish stance on the market. This is in spite of the
expectation for ample global supplies and the strengthening US
Dollar.
2/26/10 Coffee futures prices came down again this week along
with many other commodities as the US Dollar continues to
strengthen and Brazil's coffee crop is looking better than
expected. Expectations are for a record high production of 55
million bags this year. Coffee option premiums are high.
2/12/10 Coffee futures prices are steady this week as the
International Coffee Organization's estimate of world coffee
production came in at 123.6 million bags for 2019-10. The idea
that Europe will help Greece out of its financial problems is
lending strength to many commodity markets as it weakens that US
Dollar.
2/5/10 Coffee futures prices came down this week along with most
of the other commodity markets as the strong US Dollar is
expected to hurt demand for commodities. The recent attempts to
slow the economy in China also has investors worried about
prices. Global supplies of coffee are still tight.
1/30/10 Coffee futures prices came down again this week in spite
of tight global supplies and a smaller crop in South America
because of too much moisture. Coffee prices are now at a 3 month
low. Coffee option premiums are high.
1/22/10 Coffee futures prices came down this week with the rest
of the commodity markets as the US Dollar rallies again and the
worries about China trying to restrain the economy by raising
rates and raising the minimum bank reserves that Chinese banks
must keep will diminish demand.
1/15/10 Coffee futures prices rallied as the International
Coffee Organization said that coffee supplies are likely to
remain tight in 2010 as the result of low production and
problems in the quality of coffee beans because of adverse
weather conditions during harvesting.
1/8/10 Coffee futures prices rallied this week in spite of the
stronger US Dollar and the Brazilian Census Bureau estimate that
Brazil's coffee crop will be 46.7 million bags in 2010. The USDA
expects 43.5 million bags for 2010. Coffee has managed to hold
its uptrend for the last 4 months.
1/1/10 Coffee futures prices sold off from the recent rally as
the US Dollar continues to strengthen and the low volume trade
around the holidays has many commodities trading sideways to
down. Coffee options premiums are still high.
12/11/09 Coffee futures prices rallied to a 6 week high as the
expectation for continuing tight coffee supplies and the winter
demand season for the northern hemisphere will push prices
higher. The rally occurred this week in spite of the
strengthening US Dollar.
12/4/09 Coffee futures prices rallied again this week as
Brazil's government rejected about 1/3 of the coffee that
farmers are offering based on poor quality. The Columbian
Federation of Coffee Growers estimates that the coffee crop will
be down to 8.1 million bags in 2009 which is down from 11.5
million bags in 2008.
11/28/09 Coffee future prices gained strength this week as the
northern hemisphere winter demand season begins and the US
Dollar hit an 18 month low against the Eurodollar. Coffee option
premiums are high.
11/20/09 Coffee futures prices sold off again this week as the
market ignored slightly bullish news from the Brazilian Coffee
Industry Association that estimates that domestic consumption
would rise by 7% this year. The coffee prices had been acting in
an inverse relationship with the US Dollar in spite of the
northern hemisphere winter demand season approaching.
11/13/09 Coffee futures prices sold off this week in spite of
Hurricane Ida causing massive amounts of flooding and mudslides
in the coffee producing region of El Salvador.
11/6/09 Coffee futures prices rallied this week based on
technical buying and the expectation of hot dry weather in
Brazil this week. Prices held the weekly uptrend.
10/24/09 Coffee futures prices fell from the recent 4 month
highs as a lack of fundamental news and the rise in the US
Dollar towards the end of the week pressured commodity prices.
Coffee option premiums are still high.
10/12/09 Coffee futures prices rallied with the weak US Dollar
and the relative strength in the softs sector as fund and
speculative buying seems to be pushing prices around. Coffee's
frost season is basically over so any threats to the crop will
have to be excess precipitation or drought.
9/25/09 Coffee futures prices fell as the US Dollar found
strength and bounced off of its yearly lows. Many commodities
fell with the rising US Dollar in spite of indications that the
global economy is improving.
9/18/09 Coffee futures prices rallied to a 4 week high as the
International Coffee Organization kept its coffee production
estimate steady at 127 million bags but increased its
consumption estimate form 128.4 to 130 million bags. The low US
Dollar and the idea of an improving global economy is also
helping prices. Coffee option premiums are high.
9/11/09 Coffee futures prices are rallying this weak as the
Brazilian government estimates the 2009-10 crop at 39 million
bags which is down from 46 million bags from a year ago. Coffee
rallied 5 cents this week. Coffee option premiums are high.
9/4/09 Coffee futures prices are near their monthly lows as the
commodity markets soften and no freeze problems hit the
Brazilian crop. Coffee option premiums are high.
8/21/09 Coffee futures prices are trading sideways after the
recent run up in prices and are trading around the $1.25 per
pound level. A lack of fresh bullish or bearish news has the
market consolidating sideways for now. Coffee option premiums
are high.
8/7/09 Coffee futures prices are near the highs as the
perception of an improving world economy and the weakening US
Dollar are helping many commodities go higher. Coffee option
premiums are high.
7/31/09 Coffee futures prices have been very erratic recently as
the strong Real versus the US Dollar and no cold weather is
battling with harvest delays because of rain in Brazil (the
largest producer and exporter of coffee). Coffee option premiums
are high.
7/20/09 Coffee futures prices are trying to rally again based on
potential cold temperatures in Brazil and the weakening US
Dollar. On the bearish side of the equation, the Brazilian
harvest is 50% complete and the Indonesian coffee crop estimates
are being increased. Coffee option premiums are high.
7/10/09 Coffee futures prices received a slight bump to the
upside as cold temperatures in Brazil may hamper harvesting
efforts. Coffee option premiums are still high.
7/4/09 Coffee futures prices continue to sell off in spite of
the extremely tight supplies. The world harvest is expected to
be the lowest in 20 years. Coffee prices are now at a 2 month
low. Coffee option premiums are high.
6/20/09 Coffee futures prices are selling off recently in spite
of the recent International Coffee Organization's reduction in
its 2008-9 production estimates by a million bags and the USDA's
most recent estimates that show the potential for the tightest
ending stocks to usage ration in 30 years. Coffee option
premiums are high.
6/5/09 Coffee futures prices had their highest close since
September this week as the expectation for a smaller Columbian
crop, the estimated 15% smaller crop from Brazil compared to a
year ago and the weakening US Dollar are helping prices. Cold
temperatures are expected this weekend but not cold enough to do
any damage. Coffee option premiums are high.
5/30/09 Coffee futures prices rose to a 7 month high as Brazil's
harvest draws near. The expectation is for a smaller crop.
Coffee option premiums are high.
5/22/09 Coffee futures prices are still near their 7 month highs
as the South American harvest is on the way and yields are
expected to be less than last years. Coffee option premiums are
high. It may be preferable to use bull call spreads for bullish
strategies.
5/15/09 Coffee futures prices are rallying again based on the
expectation of colder weather in Brazil over the weekend. Prices
just hit a 6 month high and too much rain has hurt the coffee
yields in Columbia. Coffee option premiums are high.
5/8/09 Coffee futures prices are flying to the upside this week
to the 125 level. Recent reports showed that coffee demand is
staying steady in spite of weak global economic conditions.
Coffee option premiums are high.
4/30/09 Coffee futures prices are consolidating sideways as the
strong US Dollar is limiting any rally attempts. Coffee option
premiums are high.
4/23/09 Coffee futures prices rallied recently to the 117 level
helped by the International Coffee Organization's estimate that
the world coffee crop will be 127 million bags and the
consumption will be 128 million bags. It is also being helped by
the Columbian trucker strike that is expected to affect prices. Coffee option premiums are
high.
4/10/09 Coffee futures prices are still trending higher and are
near the 1.20 level which is a 2 month high. Coffee option
premiums are high.
3/27/09 Coffee futures prices are still moving higher as
commodities gain some momentum. The recent coffee rally is
occurring with little news. Coffee option premiums are high.
3/20/09 Coffee futures prices exploded this week to the upside
as inflation is most likely right around the corner as we exit
this worst deflationary spiral since the Great Depression. The
recent move by the Fed to print a trillion dollars and then buy
treasuries devalued the US Dollar significantly. Coffee option
premiums are high.
3/13/09 Coffee futures prices rallied big time this week along
with many other commodities as the stock market had its best 3
days in a row since November. Coffee has been in a steep
downtrend and needs this move to sustain itself before prices
can begin an uptrend. Coffee option premiums are high.
3/7/09 Coffee futures prices sold off this week along with the
rest of the soft markets as the US stock markets continue to
fall to new lows. Coffee option premiums are high.
2/27/09 Coffee futures prices sold off this week in spite of the
bullish information about coffee's steadily growing demand and
the expectation of a smaller production year cycle. Coffee
option premiums are high.
2/13/09 Coffee futures prices sold off this week as the
International Coffee Organization estimates that 2008-9
production will rise from 132.5 to 133.4 million bags. Also
hurting prices was a strong US Dollar and a slowing world
economy. Coffee option premiums are high.
2/6/09 Coffee futures prices are trading sideways in a 10 cent
range in spite of Brazil's estimate that the coffee crop will be
lower by 10 million bags from last year's crop production.
Coffee option premiums are high.
1/30/09 Coffee futures prices continue to hold their uptrend in
spite of other commodity markets selling off. This year is
supposed to be the off year for coffee farmers who have to live
with the one good year followed by a drop off based on the
coffee trees production cycle. Coffee option premiums are high.
1/16/09 Coffee futures prices are holding the rally to 2 month
highs as high quality Arabica is pretty scarce sending buyers
into the market to pay a premium for near term supplies. A
smaller crop is expected this year in Brazil. Coffee option
premiums are high.
1/10/09 Coffee futures prices began to rally after a major
decline based on the Brazilian government estimating that the
upcoming crop will be 13 million bags lower than this year's
crop because of dry weather conditions. Coffee option premiums
are high.
12/27/08 Coffee futures prices are trading sideways this week as
thin trading and no fundamental news was available to move the
markets much. Coffee option premiums are high.
12/19/08 Coffee futures prices have been reacting to the ups and
downs of the US Dollar this week. Strong days for the US Dollar
have pressured prices and weak days have strengthened the coffee
markets. Coffee option premiums are still high.
12/12/08 Coffee futures prices rallied with the rest of the
commodities this week. The USDA estimates that the 2008-9 world
ending stocks at 39.6 million bags which is 29% of normal use
which equals tight global supplies. Coffee option premiums are
high.
12/5/08 Coffee futures prices are still falling with the other
commodities and the strengthening US Dollar. December has
historically been the strongest month for coffee as
drought potential increases in Summer months in the southern
hemisphere. Coffee option premiums are above average.
11/30/08 Coffee futures prices are mostly trading sideways as
uncertainty about the global economy limit upside moves in
commodities. Coffee option premiums are above average.
11/21/08 Coffee futures prices are coming down again following
the rest of the commodity markets as oil and stocks fall and the
US Dollar rallies. Coffee option premiums are above average.
11/7/08 Coffee futures prices rallied to a 2 week high but began
to sell off as the US Dollar strengthened and slow global demand
is pressuring prices. Coffee option premiums are high.
11/1/08 Coffee futures prices are still coming down being helped
along by the collapsing value of the Brazilian Real and
commodity index fund liquidations. The falling Real makes
storing coffee a risky proposition for farmers who are dealing
with abundant harvest figures. Coffee option premiums are high.
10/24/08 Coffee futures prices are still falling with the rest
of the commodity markets and improving fundamentals out of
Brazil. Commodity prices are falling with the stock market as
the massive deleveraging continues along with the repatriation
of US Dollars from other continents. Argentina is nationalizing
pensions creating a mass exodus of cash. Coffee option premiums
are high.
10/10/08 Coffee futures prices are still falling and at contract
lows. The overall weakness in the commodity sector is pulling
most commodities lower. Demand destruction based on expectations
of a global recession are keeping the bulls at bay. The demand
season for coffee in the northern hemisphere is starting with
the cold weather but supplies are robust. Coffee option premiums
are high.
10/6/08 Coffee futures prices fell below 115 as the deflationary
pressures hurt commodity prices. The scramble by investors
towards liquidity, fears of a global recession and the strong US
Dollar are hurting coffee prices. Coffee option premiums are
high.
9/26/08 Coffee futures prices were trying to rally this week
based on outside markets and the potential for the financial
bailout to fix the markets. The bailout would most likely lead
to a weaker US Dollar and higher inflation which is bullish for
coffee futures. Coffee option premiums are above average.
9/19/08 Coffee futures prices sold off to 12 month lows this
week as none of the coffee warehouses were effected by hurricane
Ike and the Brazilian harvest is very large. Coffee option
premiums are high.
9/12/08 Coffee futures prices sold off this week to 3 week lows
based on the Brazilian harvest coming to a close and the
estimated total is 45.8 million bags. The overall weakness in
commodities is also helping pull down the price of coffee.
Coffee option premiums are still high.
9/5/08 Coffee futures prices rallied this week based on the
Brazilian harvest being behind last year's progress. Only 78% of
the crop is harvested versus last year's 96% progress. Roasters
were aggressive buyers on price dips. Coffee option premiums are
high.
8/29/078 Coffee futures prices are rallying this week based on
75% of the Brazilian crop being harvested but harvest is moving
more slowly than expected because of the slowly maturing crop.
Coffee option premiums are high.
8/22/08 Coffee futures prices are range bound again this week
but towards that upper end of the range. There is no damage to
the South American crop and the weather for the harvest has been
just about perfect. The recent run in commodity prices is
helping pull up coffee prices. Coffee option premiums are high.
8/15/08 Coffee futures prices are weak again based on the
overall weakness in commodity prices the strong US Dollar and
the Brazilian harvest going along uninterrupted. Coffee option
premiums are high.
8/8/08 Coffee futures prices are still trading within a 10 cent
range sideways as the Brazilian coffee harvest is running along
without any problems so far. Coffee option premiums are high.
7/25/08 Coffee futures prices fell this week to a new one month
low based on the Brazilian harvest going along without and
weather delays and the forecast for warm non-damaging weather
for the next week. Coffee option premiums are high.
7/18/08 Coffee futures prices fell again this week in the wake
of the broad based commodity sell off led by crude oil. The
coffee market lacks any new news which can often led to selling
pressure. Coffee option premiums are high.
7/11/08 Coffee futures prices fell this week because there is
not much potential for a damaging freeze in the next week's
forecast. Coffee option premiums are high.
7/4/08 Coffee futures prices rallied this week as cold weather
may threaten crops and massive short covering caused by fund
buying. The softs sector in general has been strong with the
exception of cotton recently. Coffee option premiums are high.
6/27/08 Coffee futures prices are still rising this week based
on fund buying and short covering. The frost season is upon the
Southern hemisphere and potential yield damage can occur. Coffee
option premiums are high.
6/20/08 Coffee futures prices are still
rising this week as cold temperatures in Brazil's growing
regions are getting shorts to cover. Coffee option premiums are
high.
6/13/08 Coffee futures prices are still
range bound as bullish news has been offset by no weather
problems and no near term worries about any damaging freezing in
Brazil. Coffee option premiums are high.
6/6/08 Coffee futures prices rallied this
week based on potential damaging temperatures in the South
American coffee areas. The big rally in crude oil is also
helping pull up other various commodity prices. Coffee option
premiums are high.
5/30/08 Coffee futures price are
consolidating sideways this week as the Brazilian harvest
begins. Coffee option premiums are high.
5/23/08 Coffee futures prices sold off this
week as an international conference of coffee producers is being
held in Brazil. Brazil is the OPEC of coffee and often holds
coffee off of the market in order to stabilize prices. Coffee
option premiums are still high.
5/15/08 Coffee futures prices are holding
support this week. The International Coffee Organization expects
127 million bags of world production in 2008-09 and consumption
to be 125 million bags in 2008 and 127 million bags in 2009.
Coffee option premiums are high.
5/9/08 Coffee futures prices are up this
week to the top of the 3 month long 15 cent channel that it has
been trading in. The estimates from Brazil for the crop this
year are predicting 45.5 million bags but private estimates are
higher at 50 million bags. Coffee option premiums are high.
5/1/08 Coffee futures prices have been down
again this week in spite of rumors that Brazil was going to pay
farmers a subsidy to not sell their coffee. Summer in the
Northern hemisphere is Winter in Brazil so the frost season is
coming up soon. Coffee option premiums are high.
4/25/08 Coffee futures prices have been
selling off this week based on the potential huge Brazilian
harvest and the weak overall commodity market. The US Dollar has
been rallying this week and has a direct inverse relationship
with many commodity markets. Coffee option premiums are high.
4/18/08 Coffee futures prices have had a
volatile two sided trading pattern this week. The funds were
buying aggressively pushing prices higher but the idea of a huge
Brazilian and Vietnamese crop is putting a lid on prices. Coffee
option premium are high.
4/11/08 Coffee futures prices are trapped in
a sideways consolidation pattern in expectation of Brazil's
harvest. Brazil estimates its harvest will be 44.2 million bags
but independent analysts say it will be higher. Brazil has a
habit of holding coffee off of the market in order to prop up
prices. Brazil is to coffee futures what OPEC is to crude oil
futures. Coffee option premiums are high.
4/4/08 Coffee futures prices had their
lowest close in 4 months based on Brazil getting ready to
harvest soon and a lack of any news. The summer in the US is the
freeze season for Brazil so expect volatility in the coming
months. Coffee option premiums are high.
3/28/08 Coffee futures prices are
consolidation sideways to down this week with no real
fundamental news to move the markets. Commodities are soft in
general right now. Coffee option premiums are high.
3/21/08 Coffee futures prices kept falling
this week as Wall Street hedge funds and commodity funds
liquidated futures positions to cover margin calls in stocks and
to pay back borrowed money. The Bear Stearns issue took the
confidence from investors. The Fed's 75 basis point cut
surprised investors because a full 100 basis point cut was
expected. Coffee option premiums are high.
3/14/08 Coffee futures prices rallied back
from the collapse in prices last week as small speculators and
the commodity funds moved back into the market. Also helping
prices was the new low in the US Dollar in expectation of
another 50 to 75 basis point interest rate cut. Summer in the US
is winter in Brazil so volatility often increases in the coming
months. Coffee option premiums are high.
3/7/08 Coffee futures prices collapsed as
the record long funds liquidated futures. Helping the fall was a
broad based commodity price corrections. Major US roasters
Folgers and Maxwell House raised prices again and an economic
recession may lessen demand. Brazil is expecting a large coffee
crop in the next few months. Coffee option premiums are very
high.
2/29/08 Coffee futures prices hit another
contract high this week after a brief pullback. Vietnam is still
hoarding supplies and Brazil is worried about continued dry
weather affecting the coffee yields. The softs sector, excluding
orange juice and lumber seem to be playing catch up with the
other commodities like grains, metals and energies who are at
all time highs. Coffee's all time high is over $3. Coffee option
premiums are very high.
2/22/08 Coffee futures prices hit new
contract highs this week based on the lack of Brazilian moisture
and major fund buying. The weak US Dollar and a perceived draw
down in global supplies is also supporting coffee prices. Coffee
futures prices are still around 50% below their all time high
and look cheap to speculators compared to grains, metals and
energies which are all at or near all time highs. Vietnam, the
largest producer of robusta coffee, is currently hoarding
supplies artificially elevating prices for the second most
popular drink in the world. Coffee option
premiums are high.
2/15/08 Coffee futures prices are still
rallying and hit contract highs this week. Brazil is having lack
of moisture issues and the drought at the end of last year may
have already put a dent in yields. The weak US Dollar and fund
buying is also helping push prices higher. Coffee option
premiums are high.
2/8/08 Coffee futures prices broke out to a
contract high after expectations of a slightly smaller Brazilian
coffee crop. Coffee futures have been a fund favorite with the
other soft commodities such as cocoa, sugar and cotton recently.
Many other commodities are near all time highs but the softs are
mostly near the lows to average ranges for prices. Coffee option
premiums are high.
2/1/08 Coffee futures prices have been
trading toward the upper end of their twelve month range based
on unknown damage to the Brazilian coffee crop caused by the
drought during the flowering stage. Brazil produces about 1/3 of
all of the world's coffee. Coffee option premiums are high.
-T & K Futures and Options Inc.
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