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Coffee Futures-Coffee Options Weekly Blog

 

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Coffee futures and options quick facts:

  • 37,500 pound contract size

  • One cent move equals $375

  • Trades March, May July, September, December

 

2/3/12 Coffee futures prices sold off this week in spite of the U.S. dollar continuing its slide. The USD is now down 3 full basis points over the last few weeks which is helping to push many commodity markets higher. Friday's strong jobs report is also helping commodity prices strengthen. It also seems that bad European Union headlines are having less affect on the markets and the worst case may already be factored into many of these markets.

1/27/12 Coffee futures prices are trading mostly sideways again this week in spite of the fact that most other commodity markets rallied higher. The bullish news was the weakening U.S. dollar that continues its 2 week slide of about 3 full basis points which helps push dollar denominated commodity markets higher. The FOMC meeting left rates unchanged and opened the door for more quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve Bank. European sovereign debt issues and saber rattling from Iran seemed to have little affect on the markets.

1/20/12 Coffee futures prices traded mostly sideways this week in spite of the recent influx of capital from hedge funds and other large speculators into the commodity markets and more specifically the soft sector. The recent successful debt auctions from Spain and France helped stabilize the European Union for the near term and in turn weaken the U.S. dollar.

1/6/12 Coffee futures prices traded mostly sideways to down this week. The U.S. dollar rose to new contract highs as concerns over European banks pushed the Eurocurrency down to a 16 month low. New tensions with Iran and its nuclear program has pushed American and British aircraft carriers to enter the Persian Gulf and the Straits of Hormuz and in turn pushed crude oil prices to the highs.

12/23/11 Coffee futures prices traded mostly sideways this week while many other commodity markets rallied as the U.S. dollar sold off from its contract highs in the thin volume holiday trade that is typical for this week and next. Iran tensions pushed oil higher and positive economic reports out of the U.S. and Europe also pushed investors back into risk assets like stocks and commodities.

12/16/11 Coffee futures prices sold off this week along with most other commodity markets. The lack of an additional quantitative easing announcement by Bernanke and the Federal Reserve Bank at the FOMC meeting surprised some market participants and pressured the markets. More bad news out of Europe and very positive news from the U.S. economy pushed more assets in to the U.S. dollar as it hit another high kept the stock markets trading down to sideways as well.

12/9/11 Coffee futures prices traded mostly down this week again as most of the commodity and stock markets took their directional cues from the European headlines again. In other words, bad news out of the European Union pressured the markets and good news helped push markets higher. The week ended on a positive note as the European Union summit yielded ideas of tightening anti-deficit rules and punishments for member countries. This heartened the markets as it symbolized the idea that forced accountability of member nations may curb government spending.

12/2/11 Coffee futures prices sold off this week in spite of the fact that many other commodity markets rallied. Crude oil broke through $100 a barrel as Iranian students broke into the United Kingdon embassy in Tehran. Positive job growth in the U.S. and other encouraging economic data helped many commodities push higher. Also adding to the bullish tone was stability in Europe and a sell off in the U.S. dollar.

11/25/11 Coffee futures prices traded mostly down along with the majority of the commodity markets. The U.S. dollar index rallied almost to its October 4th high which is coincidentally when many commodity markets' made their recent contract lows. The recent German bond auction was a failure and couldn't managed to sell all of the bonds issued as more problems out of Italy and Greece hurt the European Union as investors flee to cash and the U.S. treasury markets.

11/18/11 Coffee futures prices traded mostly sideways as more problems came out of the European Union suppressing most commodity rally attempts. The talk of Italy potentially defaulting on its debt and Italian bond yields breaching the critical 7% area hindered most bullish support for most markets. The European Central Bank chose to purchase Italian and Spanish bonds to support the markets and prove that they would support the teetering European Union and its weak links from default.

11/4/11 Coffee futures prices traded mostly sideways this week as more uncertainty about Greek and Italian solvency added to European Union woes. Also adding to the uncertainty was the bankruptcy declaration by MF Global who supposedly was overleveraged in European high risk assets and it was a very bad bet. This uncertainty pushed assets towards the U.S. dollar and U.S. treasuries pushing both higher on the week. The strong dollar often depresses dollar denominated assets like commodities.

10/14/11 Coffee futures prices rose again this week as the positive rhetoric out of the European Union and the idea that the EU has plenty of assets to back up its support of failing economys like Greece, Spain and Italy has led investors back into stocks and commodities. The U.S. dollar continues its fall which is also helping out the dollar demoninated commodity markets become more bullish.

10/7/11 Coffee futures prices rallied this week from its lows. The market moving news of the week was Moodys' cutting the senior debt and deposit ratings of 12 UK financial institutions while at the same time the European Commission put together a possible coordinated European bank recapitalization plan to stabilize weak links in the financial chain like Greece and Italy. Market volatility continues to be extreme in stock and commodity futures contracts.

9/30/11 Coffee futures prices came down again this week along with most other commodity markets as more problems with Greece and its potential default to its bond holders and other European woes has led to an extremely volatile trading environment for stocks and commodity investors. The U.S. dollar is also near its recent highs which is also hindering the bulls for now.

9/23/11 Coffee futures prices sold off this week along with just about every other commodity as more problems out of the European Union and Federal Reserve Bank chairman Ben Bernanke saying that the U.S. economy was probably going to slip back into a recession. This fear of a double dip global recession sent investors fleeing out of the stock and commodity markets around the globe and strengthened the U.S. dollar significantly.

9/16/11 Coffee futures prices sold off this week along with most other commodity contracts as more European soveriegn debt problems (Greece) and more bad economic reports out of the United States have come together to add more uncertainty about the world's economic future. The weakening U.S. dollar did little to prop up commodity prices. Volatility can be extreme at times as the market reacts to economic reports.

9/1/11 Coffee futures prices rallied again this week near the highs in spite of the fact that the U.S. dollar continues to stregthen as the European Union has more problems. Helping the coffee market is talk from the Federal Reserve Bank about the potential for a quantitative easing number three.

8/19/11 Coffee futures prices had an extremely volatile week along with most of the rest of the commodity markets. The stock market indices were quite volatile and affected most other asset classes as European Union problems resurfaced again and put many investors in doubt about future U.S. and global growth prospects over the near term.

8/5/11 Coffee futures prices have been mostly sideways this week. This week's main stories are about Europe's continued problems and the foreseeable end of the European Union as the PIIGS continue to harm. A slower global economy and the 10% correction in the U.S. stock markets have many commodity investors heading for the sidelines.

7/29/11 Coffee futures prices have been trading mostly sideways this week as the United States faces a political impasse on raising the debt ceiling. This has led to talk about the U.S. losing its AAA credit rating and potentially defaulting on its debt obligations. The U.S. dollar is trading sideways near its lows because things seem to be even worse in Europe. Many of the other commodity markets have also been trading sideways for the most part.

7/15/11 Coffee futures prices are trading sideways this week as Ben Bernanke left the door open for QE3 or printing more U.S. dollars to be used for buying treasuries to help bouy the economy. Also the European Bank Authority said 8 out of 90 banks failed their stress tests this week. 5 were from Spain, 2 from Greece and one from Austria. Warm weather in Brazil has diminished freeze fears for now.

7/1/11 Coffee futures prices rallied by about 20 cents per pound this week as the U.S. dollar lost about 2 basis points once the markets decided that the greek soveriegn debt issues would be resolved for the short term in spite of the agreement that most analyst share that Greece is doomed to be bankrupt sooner or later. Many commodity sectors look to be selling off such as the precious metals, energies and grains seem to be trending sideways to down over the near term.

6/24/11 Coffee futures prices are trading mostly sideways again this week in spite of the collapse in crude oil prices. The Obama administration decided to release oil from the strategic petroleum reserve to help pressure energy prices. The International Energy Agency plans to add 2 million barrels a day from non-OPEC reserves. Also pressuring the markets is the idea that Greece will default sooner or later and may be released from the European Union in order to strengthen the Euro. Reports of slower growth out of India and China is also pressuring commodity prices in general.

6/10/11 Coffee futures prices traded mostly sideways this week as a lack of any freeze threats and plenty of supply on the global market. Coffee option premiums are coming down as volatility moderates after the extreme volatility seen back in May.

6/3/11 Coffee futures prices rallied this week in spite of quite a bit of bad U.S. economic data in manufacturing, housing and jobs has consumer confidence falling along with the stock market and most of the commodity markets. Many economists fear a soft patch in the economy this summer and a slowing of Asian demand for many commodities as attempts to battle inflation by raising rates are slowing growth.

5/27/11 Coffee futures prices are trading sideways along with most of the other commodity markets as large speculators such as hedge funds seem to be exiting the riskier assets. The lack of aggressive buying and selling of these futures contracts has caused many of them to trade sideways in small trading ranges. The recent 3 cent rally in the US dollar should have been more of a catalyst pushing commodity prices higher but this has largely been ignored. This is most likely caused by the perception that China's economy may be slowing down as well.

5/20/11 Coffee futures prices sold off again this week as the US dollar continues to strengthen and investors seem to be heading for the exit when it comes to their riskier assets and are getting in to cash and cash equivalents. The volatility in many markets has dropped considerably as some like silver, gold, crude oil and cotton are consolidating sideways. This in turn is bringing option premiums back down to more normal levels for some markets as this volatility premium is taken out of the options.

5/13/11 Coffee futures prices sold off again this week as the market digests the idea that Greece may default on its debt just a year after this same predicament that forced Germany to infuse money into the system. This news crushed the Euro Currency and pushed the US dollar higher which in turn hurt most commodity prices and pushed volatility much higher. Quantitative easing is set to end this summer which might be why the stock market is soft in spite of energy prices coming down violently. Option premiums are very high for most commodities because of the recent volatility.

5/6/11 Coffee futures prices sold off this week along with most of the other commodity markets. A cocktail of bearish happenings have been a catalyst initiating a huge exodus out of risk assets to reduce investors' risk exposure. The ECB president Trichet let the market know that a ECB rate hike is not a done deal in July which in turn pushed the US dollar up a full basis point. Also hitting the markets were the CME group's increase in silver margin requirements which totalled 5 increases over the last 2 weeks which pushed weak longs out of the market and caused silver to correct by about 25% making it the worst sell off since the early 1980's. Lastly, many US economic reports have been weaker than expected which is weakening the confidence of a strong economic recovery in the US over the near term.

4/29/11 Coffee futures prices rallied about 10 cents per pound this week. The FOMC meeting left Bernanke signalling that QE 3 would not happen and QE 2 would end in June and that interest rates will probably stay on hold for a while leaving the US dollar to get crushed as other countries plan on continued interest rates hikes to fight inflation and attract foreign assets to the stronger currencies.

4/22/11 Coffee futures prices rallied about 9 cents per pound this week along with most of the other commodities as the US dollar hit levels not seen since the "Great Recession" summer of 2008. The market seems to be factoring in an unwillingness by the United States' federal reserve bank to raise interest rates in spite of the fact that many other economies like Australia, China and the European Union are raising interest rates. This rising interest rate environment draws money away from US investments into stronger currency assets.

4/8/11 Coffee futures prices rallied about 19 cents this week along with many other commodity markets as the bulls seem to have control for now. Gold hit an all time high and crude oil broke through $110 a barrel pulling other commodities with them. The US dollar coincidentally hit new contract lows this week as well. The new earthquake in Japan seems to be a non-event this time for the markets.

4/1/11 Coffee futures prices are still trading mostly sideways this week . Coffee producers are fighting higher fuel costs and other costs of production are increasing. Coffee prices are sideways at about 2.61 cents per pound and coffee option premiums are high.

3/25/11 Coffee futures prices were mostly sideways this week in spite of the fact that the risk trades like commodities were the weekly theme. The Japan nuclear scare seems to have been averted for the most part and the markets factored in a worst case scenario which caused the massive sell off last week. The tensions in the Middle East seem to be growing which pushed crude oil prices over the $105 level. The US dollar has been sliding for most of the month of March which is also helping push most commodity futures prices higher.

3/18/11 Coffee futures prices came down this week along with most of the commodity and stock markets as investors try to figure out what affects the tsunami and its destruction of the cities and nuclear plants in Japan will have over the short, medium and long terms. Japan's economy is the 3rd largest in the world and demand destruction for some commodities may occur.

3/11/11 Coffee futures prices are correcting from 14 year highs after a volatile few weeks in the commodity markets. Geopolitical issues in the Middle East put the bias in the commodity markets in the hands of the bulls and the buy the rumor sell the fact side of the equation and China's first trade deficit in many years seems to be behind the massive liquidation of most of the commodity markets. Tight supplies of coffee and the fact that Vietnamese exports are having problems finding enough supply may limit sell offs.

3/4/11 Coffee futures prices rallied another 15 cents this week as the world wonders about the violence and ubiquitous unrest in northern Africa and the middle east. Egyptians got rid of their despot. Libya is trying along with Bahrain, Tunisia and others which is pushing crude oil prices sky high again. Higher oil prices are very inflationary and helps push the bias of all dollar denominated commodities higher.

2/11/11 Coffee futures prices continue to rally with most of the soft markets this week. The uprising in Egypt by the people to oust the long time president out of power has turned violent and caused many commodity markets to become very volatile because of the belief that turmoil may spread to other Muslim countries near Egypt. On February 10th the ousted president appointed his vice president as ruler much to the dismay of the protesters.

2/4/11 Coffee futures prices are still running higher this week along with most of the softs markets like cotton, cocoa and sugar. The soft complex has been the strength of the CRB Index for a while now and this trend looks to continue as fundamentals are also bullish.

1/28/11 Coffee futures prices are still making new highs this week as the soft markets seem to be bucking the sell off trend affecting most of the other commodity markets. A smaller coffee crop is expected and demand has remained robust. New highs could be in the making over the next few weeks.

1/21/11 Coffee futures prices bucked the trend of most of the other commodity markets as they sold off violently in anticipation that China will step up its efforts to quell inflation by making it harder to get money out of its main banks by increasing reserve requirements and raising interest rates.

1/7/11 Coffee futures prices are correcting from highs in 2010 not seen since the 1997 bull run. Heavy rains in Columbia and Central America are hurting yields but coffee has been selling off sharply this week along with most of the other commodity markets as the US dollar continues to strengthen. The current La Nina is the strongest in 50 years and will most likely cause many weather abnormalities.

12/24/10 Coffee futures prices rallied this week but the week before and after Christmas are notoriously thinly traded as the volumes dry up. Persistent supply concerns and speculative buying has been pushing prices up. Columbian output may be suffering because of wet weather and rising costs of production. Columbia is the largest producer of mild unwashed arabica beans. La Nina is the strongest in 50 years and can cause drought in South American coffee growing regions.

12/17/10 Coffee futures prices continued to climb towards the highs this week as the improving economy usually makes coffee consumers buy better quality coffee. The wet season in Costa Rica was a month longer than normal hurting the drying process.

12/3/10 Coffee futures prices continue to come down in spite of the strength in many other commodity markets. The supply information coming out of South America seems to be ample and the recent strength in the US dollar is also pressuring the coffee markets recently.

11/19/10 Coffee futures prices sold off again this week as China raised interest rates in an attempt to slow its overheating economy and inflation. Also pressuring the commodity markets was the idea that Ireland may default on loans might lead to more Eurozone economic problems coming soon.

11/12/10 Coffee futures prices are correcting significantly after the huge run up in prices. The most prevelant perception is that the global recovery may be stalling based on worse than expected economic reports as of late and the idea that China will hike interest rates to battle inflation which should push commodities lower.

11/5/10 Coffee futures prices are still heading higher as the FOMC meeting yielded more quantitative easing by the Fed. Printing more money should lead to high inflation or hyperinflation for the next few years. Especially when you consider the fact that the Fed bought so much of the toxic real estate assets from Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. It makes sense that they won't raise rates to fight inflation because it would cost the government billions of dollars.

10/22/10 Coffee futures prices are still heading higher this week in spite of new crop harvest supplies hitting the market and Brazilian coffee is about to be approved for delivery against ICE coffee futures contracts. On the bull side supplies in Columbia and Central America are not as large as originally expected and heavy rains in Vietnamese growing areas may hurt yields.

10/15/10 Coffee futures prices are trading sideways near the recent highs this week as a lack of any new news is keeping the market range bound for now. Coffee options volatility premiums are high.

10/8/10 Coffee futures prices are still running higher as the driest weather in 4 years in the Minas Gerais region of Brazil may affect the flowering period for coffee which is quickly nearing. This can affect the size and quality of the cherry and lower next years crop. Storm damage to Mexico and other parts of Central America are still not yet known. The Amazon River is currently at its lowest level in 47 years which can greatly hamper shipping.

9/24/10 Coffee futures prices are starting to come down this week as wet weather in Brazil is helping the coffee crop there with its flowering stage for the 2011 crop. Higher supplies from Vietnam and Columbia are also pressuring prices.

9/17/10 Coffee futures prices continue to rally to new contract highs as commodity funds have been massive buyers of soft contracts like coffee, cotton and sugar recently. Coffee options have very high premiums because of the recently extreme volatility.

9/10/10 Coffee futures prices rallied to their highest price since 1997 as the commodity funds have been large buyers of foods and fiber contracts in an attempt to diversify from equities recently. Also pushing prices is the idea that wet weather in Colombia will lead to fungus issues.

8/20/10 Coffee futures prices are breaking through the 12 year highs this week as short term supply tightness in Brazil and Vietman; Heavy rains delaying the Malaysian crop by 60-90 days overcomes the idea that Brazil is about ready to dump a record crop onto the global market.

8/13/10 Coffee futures prices are coming down from the recent 12 year highs as harvest is about to commence with Brazil and Vietnam are expecting huge crops and exports are relatively weak. Coffee managed to rise about 10 cents this week.

8/6/10 Coffee futures prices are trading sideways after making new highs. Excellent weather in Brazil and a very large may keep a top on any violent rallies over the near term. Coffee option premiums are high.

8/2/10 Coffee futures prices made a new high in spite of the near ideal weather in Brazil and the expectations of a bumper harvest. Vietnam was hit with very heavy rains which may negatively impact the coffee yields from that region.

7/24/10 Coffee futures prices are trading sideways in a roughly 15 cent range. The recent sell off in the US Dollar is lending strength to many of the commodity markets and the soft sector is beginning to show signs of strength. Coffee option premiums are high.

7/10/10 Coffee futures prices were range bound this week. As slow demand and no expectations for any frost in South America pressured prices. The International Coffee Organization estimated that world production would be 120.6 million bags for 2009-10. The estimation for the Brazilian harvest is 50 million bags.

7/2/10 Coffee futures prices sold off this week along with many other commodities as the idea is permeating the markets of a global slow down and potentially a double dip recession in the United States. The recent huge run up in prices may have gotten ahead of itself.

6/25/10 Coffee futures prices rallied again this week in spite of the recent USDA estimate that worldwide production would be up 11% to a record high of 139.7 million bags and world ending stocks were up 5 million bags to 36.3 million bags. Vietnam producers are holding back supplies from the market in an attempt to increase prices. Current prices are at a 2 year high.

6/11/10 Coffee futures prices rallied again this week as the International Coffee Organization estimates 134 million bags of world production 134 million bags of consumptions for 2010. Total exports are down 8% for the first 7 months of 2009-2010 from a year ago.

6/4/10 Coffee futures prices rallied some this week as a larger increase in exports to India and the potential damage to the coffee in Guatemala from tropical storm Agatha which caused massive flooding helped push prices.

5/28/10 Coffee futures prices rallied this week as the Brazilian coffee farmers have asked the government to stockpile coffee after this season's harvest to help prop up prices. This year's crop is expected to be quite large.

5/21/10 Coffee futures prices came down with the rest of the commodity markets this week as the European problems stemming from Greece and the other PIIGS are expected to hurt demand for many commodities. Investors seem to be choosing cash over stocks and commodities for now.

5/14/10 Coffee futures prices rallied this week in spite of many commodities selling off as people question whether the European bail out of Greece will work or just prolong the inevitable defaulting on government debt. The strong US Dollar may keep a lid on prices.

5/7/10 Coffee futures prices fell this week in the expectation of a Brazilian crop estimated at 47 million bags. Also pressuring prices is the lack of any potentially freezing temperatures over the near term. The problems in Greece are also decreasing investor risk appetites for now.

4/25/10 Coffee futures prices rallied this week from support levels as the Winter season begins down in South America. Much of the softs sector rallied this week as a broad based commodity rally may be begining in spite of the stronger US Dollar.

4/16/10 Coffee futures prices have been selling off this week in spite of estimates that demand will outstrip production over the next few months. The International Coffee Organization estimates that world production for 2009-2010 will fall from 123 to 121 million bags because of coffee production problems in Central America.

4/9/10 Coffee futures prices rallied again this week to a nine week high based on the Brazilian winter frost season speculation and the idea that many global economies are beginning to rebound. Coffee option premiums are high.

3/27/10 Coffee futures prices rose this week to a 4 week high as the approaching winter season in Brazil has many speculators taking a bullish stance on the market. This is in spite of the expectation for ample global supplies and the strengthening US Dollar.

2/26/10 Coffee futures prices came down again this week along with many other commodities as the US Dollar continues to strengthen and Brazil's coffee crop is looking better than expected. Expectations are for a record high production of 55 million bags this year. Coffee option premiums are high.

2/12/10 Coffee futures prices are steady this week as the International Coffee Organization's estimate of world coffee production came in at 123.6 million bags for 2019-10. The idea that Europe will help Greece out of its financial problems is lending strength to many commodity markets as it weakens that US Dollar.

2/5/10 Coffee futures prices came down this week along with most of the other commodity markets as the strong US Dollar is expected to hurt demand for commodities. The recent attempts to slow the economy in China also has investors worried about prices. Global supplies of coffee are still tight.

1/30/10 Coffee futures prices came down again this week in spite of tight global supplies and a smaller crop in South America because of too much moisture. Coffee prices are now at a 3 month low. Coffee option premiums are high.

1/22/10 Coffee futures prices came down this week with the rest of the commodity markets as the US Dollar rallies again and the worries about China trying to restrain the economy by raising rates and raising the minimum bank reserves that Chinese banks must keep will diminish demand.

1/15/10 Coffee futures prices rallied as the International Coffee Organization said that coffee supplies are likely to remain tight in 2010 as the result of low production and problems in the quality of coffee beans because of adverse weather conditions during harvesting.

1/8/10 Coffee futures prices rallied this week in spite of the stronger US Dollar and the Brazilian Census Bureau estimate that Brazil's coffee crop will be 46.7 million bags in 2010. The USDA expects 43.5 million bags for 2010. Coffee has managed to hold its uptrend for the last 4 months.

1/1/10 Coffee futures prices sold off from the recent rally as the US Dollar continues to strengthen and the low volume trade around the holidays has many commodities trading sideways to down. Coffee options premiums are still high.

12/11/09 Coffee futures prices rallied to a 6 week high as the expectation for continuing tight coffee supplies and the winter demand season for the northern hemisphere will push prices higher. The rally occurred this week in spite of the strengthening US Dollar.

12/4/09 Coffee futures prices rallied again this week as Brazil's government rejected about 1/3 of the coffee that farmers are offering based on poor quality. The Columbian Federation of Coffee Growers estimates that the coffee crop will be down to 8.1 million bags in 2009 which is down from 11.5 million bags in 2008.

11/28/09 Coffee future prices gained strength this week as the northern hemisphere winter demand season begins and the US Dollar hit an 18 month low against the Eurodollar. Coffee option premiums are high.

11/20/09 Coffee futures prices sold off again this week as the market ignored slightly bullish news from the Brazilian Coffee Industry Association that estimates that domestic consumption would rise by 7% this year. The coffee prices had been acting in an inverse relationship with the US Dollar in spite of the northern hemisphere winter demand season approaching.

11/13/09 Coffee futures prices sold off this week in spite of Hurricane Ida causing massive amounts of flooding and mudslides in the coffee producing region of El Salvador.

11/6/09 Coffee futures prices rallied this week based on technical buying and the expectation of hot dry weather in Brazil this week. Prices held the weekly uptrend.

10/24/09 Coffee futures prices fell from the recent 4 month highs as a lack of fundamental news and the rise in the US Dollar towards the end of the week pressured commodity prices. Coffee option premiums are still high.

10/12/09 Coffee futures prices rallied with the weak US Dollar and the relative strength in the softs sector as fund and speculative buying seems to be pushing prices around. Coffee's frost season is basically over so any threats to the crop will have to be excess precipitation or drought.

9/25/09 Coffee futures prices fell as the US Dollar found strength and bounced off of its yearly lows. Many commodities fell with the rising US Dollar in spite of indications that the global economy is improving.

9/18/09 Coffee futures prices rallied to a 4 week high as the International Coffee Organization kept its coffee production estimate steady at 127 million bags but increased its consumption estimate form 128.4 to 130 million bags. The low US Dollar and the idea of an improving global economy is also helping prices. Coffee option premiums are high.

9/11/09 Coffee futures prices are rallying this weak as the Brazilian government estimates the 2009-10 crop at 39 million bags which is down from 46 million bags from a year ago. Coffee rallied 5 cents this week. Coffee option premiums are high.

9/4/09 Coffee futures prices are near their monthly lows as the commodity markets soften and no freeze problems hit the Brazilian crop. Coffee option premiums are high.

8/21/09 Coffee futures prices are trading sideways after the recent run up in prices and are trading around the $1.25 per pound level. A lack of fresh bullish or bearish news has the market consolidating sideways for now. Coffee option premiums are high.

8/7/09 Coffee futures prices are near the highs as the perception of an improving world economy and the weakening US Dollar are helping many commodities go higher. Coffee option premiums are high.

7/31/09 Coffee futures prices have been very erratic recently as the strong Real versus the US Dollar and no cold weather is battling with harvest delays because of rain in Brazil (the largest producer and exporter of coffee). Coffee option premiums are high.

7/20/09 Coffee futures prices are trying to rally again based on potential cold temperatures in Brazil and the weakening US Dollar. On the bearish side of the equation, the Brazilian harvest is 50% complete and the Indonesian coffee crop estimates are being increased. Coffee option premiums are high.

7/10/09 Coffee futures prices received a slight bump to the upside as cold temperatures in Brazil may hamper harvesting efforts. Coffee option premiums are still high.

7/4/09 Coffee futures prices continue to sell off in spite of the extremely tight supplies. The world harvest is expected to be the lowest in 20 years. Coffee prices are now at a 2 month low. Coffee option premiums are high.

6/20/09 Coffee futures prices are selling off recently in spite of the recent International Coffee Organization's reduction in its 2008-9 production estimates by a million bags and the USDA's most recent estimates that show the potential for the tightest ending stocks to usage ration in 30 years. Coffee option premiums are high.

6/5/09 Coffee futures prices had their highest close since September this week as the expectation for a smaller Columbian crop, the estimated 15% smaller crop from Brazil compared to a year ago and the weakening US Dollar are helping prices. Cold temperatures are expected this weekend but not cold enough to do any damage. Coffee option premiums are high.

5/30/09 Coffee futures prices rose to a 7 month high as Brazil's harvest draws near. The expectation is for a smaller crop. Coffee option premiums are high.

5/22/09 Coffee futures prices are still near their 7 month highs as the South American harvest is on the way and yields are expected to be less than last years. Coffee option premiums are high. It may be preferable to use bull call spreads for bullish strategies.

5/15/09 Coffee futures prices are rallying again based on the expectation of colder weather in Brazil over the weekend. Prices just hit a 6 month high and too much rain has hurt the coffee yields in Columbia. Coffee option premiums are high.

5/8/09 Coffee futures prices are flying to the upside this week to the 125 level. Recent reports showed that coffee demand is staying steady in spite of weak global economic conditions. Coffee option premiums are high.

4/30/09 Coffee futures prices are consolidating sideways as the strong US Dollar is limiting any rally attempts. Coffee option premiums are high.

4/23/09 Coffee futures prices rallied recently to the 117 level helped by the International Coffee Organization's estimate that the world coffee crop will be 127 million bags and the consumption will be 128 million bags. It is also being helped by the Columbian trucker strike that is expected to affect prices. Coffee option premiums are high.

4/10/09 Coffee futures prices are still trending higher and are near the 1.20 level which is a 2 month high. Coffee option premiums are high.

3/27/09 Coffee futures prices are still moving higher as commodities gain some momentum. The recent coffee rally is occurring with little news. Coffee option premiums are high.

3/20/09 Coffee futures prices exploded this week to the upside as inflation is most likely right around the corner as we exit this worst deflationary spiral since the Great Depression. The recent move by the Fed to print a trillion dollars and then buy treasuries devalued the US Dollar significantly. Coffee option premiums are high.

3/13/09 Coffee futures prices rallied big time this week along with many other commodities as the stock market had its best 3 days in a row since November. Coffee has been in a steep downtrend and needs this move to sustain itself before prices can begin an uptrend. Coffee option premiums are high.

3/7/09 Coffee futures prices sold off this week along with the rest of the soft markets as the US stock markets continue to fall to new lows. Coffee option premiums are high.

2/27/09 Coffee futures prices sold off this week in spite of the bullish information about coffee's steadily growing demand and the expectation of a smaller production year cycle. Coffee option premiums are high.

2/13/09 Coffee futures prices sold off this week as the International Coffee Organization estimates that 2008-9 production will rise from 132.5 to 133.4 million bags. Also hurting prices was a strong US Dollar and a slowing world economy. Coffee option premiums are high.

2/6/09 Coffee futures prices are trading sideways in a 10 cent range in spite of Brazil's estimate that the coffee crop will be lower by 10 million bags from last year's crop production. Coffee option premiums are high.

1/30/09 Coffee futures prices continue to hold their uptrend in spite of other commodity markets selling off. This year is supposed to be the off year for coffee farmers who have to live with the one good year followed by a drop off based on the coffee trees production cycle. Coffee option premiums are high.

1/16/09 Coffee futures prices are holding the rally to 2 month highs as high quality Arabica is pretty scarce sending buyers into the market to pay a premium for near term supplies. A smaller crop is expected this year in Brazil. Coffee option premiums are high.

1/10/09 Coffee futures prices began to rally after a major decline based on the Brazilian government estimating that the upcoming crop will be 13 million bags lower than this year's crop because of dry weather conditions. Coffee option premiums are high.

12/27/08 Coffee futures prices are trading sideways this week as thin trading and no fundamental news was available to move the markets much. Coffee option premiums are high.

12/19/08 Coffee futures prices have been reacting to the ups and downs of the US Dollar this week. Strong days for the US Dollar have pressured prices and weak days have strengthened the coffee markets. Coffee option premiums are still high.

12/12/08 Coffee futures prices rallied with the rest of the commodities this week. The USDA estimates that the 2008-9 world ending stocks at 39.6 million bags which is 29% of normal use which equals tight global supplies. Coffee option premiums are high.

12/5/08 Coffee futures prices are still falling with the other commodities and the strengthening US Dollar. December has historically been  the strongest month for coffee as drought potential increases in Summer months in the southern hemisphere. Coffee option premiums are above average.

11/30/08 Coffee futures prices are mostly trading sideways as uncertainty about the global economy limit upside moves in commodities. Coffee option premiums are above average.

11/21/08 Coffee futures prices are coming down again following the rest of the commodity markets as oil and stocks fall and the US Dollar rallies. Coffee option premiums are above average.

11/7/08 Coffee futures prices rallied to a 2 week high but began to sell off as the US Dollar strengthened and slow global demand is pressuring prices. Coffee option premiums are high.

11/1/08 Coffee futures prices are still coming down being helped along by the collapsing value of the Brazilian Real and commodity index fund liquidations. The falling Real makes storing coffee a risky proposition for farmers who are dealing with abundant harvest figures. Coffee option premiums are high.

10/24/08 Coffee futures prices are still falling with the rest of the commodity markets and improving fundamentals out of Brazil. Commodity prices are falling with the stock market as the massive deleveraging continues along with the repatriation of US Dollars from other continents. Argentina is nationalizing pensions creating a mass exodus of cash. Coffee option premiums are high.

10/10/08 Coffee futures prices are still falling and at contract lows. The overall weakness in the commodity sector is pulling most commodities lower. Demand destruction based on expectations of a global recession are keeping the bulls at bay. The demand season for coffee in the northern hemisphere is starting with the cold weather but supplies are robust. Coffee option premiums are high.

10/6/08 Coffee futures prices fell below 115 as the deflationary pressures hurt commodity prices. The scramble by investors towards liquidity, fears of a global recession and the strong US Dollar are hurting coffee prices. Coffee option premiums are high.

9/26/08 Coffee futures prices were trying to rally this week based on outside markets and the potential for the financial bailout to fix the markets. The bailout would most likely lead to a weaker US Dollar and higher inflation which is bullish for coffee futures. Coffee option premiums are above average.

9/19/08 Coffee futures prices sold off to 12 month lows this week as none of the coffee warehouses were effected by hurricane Ike and the Brazilian harvest is very large. Coffee option premiums are high.

9/12/08 Coffee futures prices sold off this week to 3 week lows based on the Brazilian harvest coming to a close and the estimated total is 45.8 million bags. The overall weakness in commodities is also helping pull down the price of coffee. Coffee option premiums are still high.

9/5/08 Coffee futures prices rallied this week based on the Brazilian harvest being behind last year's progress. Only 78% of the crop is harvested versus last year's 96% progress. Roasters were aggressive buyers on price dips. Coffee option premiums are high.

8/29/078 Coffee futures prices are rallying this week based on 75% of the Brazilian crop being harvested but harvest is moving more slowly than expected because of the slowly maturing crop. Coffee option premiums are high.

8/22/08 Coffee futures prices are range bound again this week but towards that upper end of the range. There is no damage to the South American crop and the weather for the harvest has been just about perfect. The recent run in commodity prices is helping pull up coffee prices. Coffee option premiums are high.

8/15/08 Coffee futures prices are weak again based on the overall weakness in commodity prices the strong US Dollar and the Brazilian harvest going along uninterrupted. Coffee option premiums are high.

8/8/08 Coffee futures prices are still trading within a 10 cent range sideways as the Brazilian coffee harvest is running along without any problems so far. Coffee option premiums are high.

7/25/08 Coffee futures prices fell this week to a new one month low based on the Brazilian harvest going along without and weather delays and the forecast for warm non-damaging weather for the next week. Coffee option premiums are high.

7/18/08 Coffee futures prices fell again this week in the wake of the broad based commodity sell off led by crude oil. The coffee market lacks any new news which can often led to selling pressure. Coffee option premiums are high.

7/11/08 Coffee futures prices fell this week because there is not much potential for a damaging freeze in the next week's forecast. Coffee option premiums are high.

7/4/08 Coffee futures prices rallied this week as cold weather may threaten crops and massive short covering caused by fund buying. The softs sector in general has been strong with the exception of cotton recently. Coffee option premiums are high.

6/27/08 Coffee futures prices are still rising this week based on fund buying and short covering. The frost season is upon the Southern hemisphere and potential yield damage can occur. Coffee option premiums are high.

6/20/08 Coffee futures prices are still rising this week as cold temperatures in Brazil's growing regions are getting shorts to cover. Coffee option premiums are high.

6/13/08 Coffee futures prices are still range bound as bullish news has been offset by no weather problems and no near term worries about any damaging freezing in Brazil. Coffee option premiums are high.

6/6/08 Coffee futures prices rallied this week based on potential damaging temperatures in the South American coffee areas. The big rally in crude oil is also helping pull up other various commodity prices. Coffee option premiums are high.

5/30/08 Coffee futures price are consolidating sideways this week as the Brazilian harvest begins. Coffee option premiums are high.

5/23/08 Coffee futures prices sold off this week as an international conference of coffee producers is being held in Brazil. Brazil is the OPEC of coffee and often holds coffee off of the market in order to stabilize prices. Coffee option premiums are still high.

5/15/08 Coffee futures prices are holding support this week. The International Coffee Organization expects 127 million bags of world production in 2008-09 and consumption to be 125 million bags in 2008 and 127 million bags in 2009. Coffee option premiums are high.

5/9/08 Coffee futures prices are up this week to the top of the 3 month long 15 cent channel that it has been trading in. The estimates from Brazil for the crop this year are predicting 45.5 million bags but private estimates are higher at 50 million bags. Coffee option premiums are high.

5/1/08 Coffee futures prices have been down again this week in spite of rumors that Brazil was going to pay farmers a subsidy to not sell their coffee. Summer in the Northern hemisphere is Winter in Brazil so the frost season is coming up soon. Coffee option premiums are high.

4/25/08 Coffee futures prices have been selling off this week based on the potential huge Brazilian harvest and the weak overall commodity market. The US Dollar has been rallying this week and has a direct inverse relationship with many commodity markets. Coffee option premiums are high.

4/18/08 Coffee futures prices have had a volatile two sided trading pattern this week. The funds were buying aggressively pushing prices higher but the idea of a huge Brazilian and Vietnamese crop is putting a lid on prices. Coffee option premium are high.

4/11/08 Coffee futures prices are trapped in a sideways consolidation pattern in expectation of Brazil's harvest. Brazil estimates its harvest will be 44.2 million bags but independent analysts say it will be higher. Brazil has a habit of holding coffee off of the market in order to prop up prices. Brazil is to coffee futures what OPEC is to crude oil futures. Coffee option premiums are high.

4/4/08 Coffee futures prices had their lowest close in 4 months based on Brazil getting ready to harvest soon and a lack of any news. The summer in the US is the freeze season for Brazil so expect volatility in the coming months. Coffee option premiums are high.

3/28/08 Coffee futures prices are consolidation sideways to down this week with no real fundamental news to move the markets. Commodities are soft in general right now. Coffee option premiums are high.

3/21/08 Coffee futures prices kept falling this week as Wall Street hedge funds and commodity funds liquidated futures positions to cover margin calls in stocks and to pay back borrowed money. The Bear Stearns issue took the confidence from investors. The Fed's 75 basis point cut surprised investors because a full 100 basis point cut was expected. Coffee option premiums are high.

3/14/08 Coffee futures prices rallied back from the collapse in prices last week as small speculators and the commodity funds moved back into the market. Also helping prices was the new low in the US Dollar in expectation of another 50 to 75 basis point interest rate cut. Summer in the US is winter in Brazil so volatility often increases in the coming months. Coffee option premiums are high.

3/7/08 Coffee futures prices collapsed as the record long funds liquidated futures. Helping the fall was a broad based commodity price corrections. Major US roasters Folgers and Maxwell House raised prices again and an economic recession may lessen demand. Brazil is expecting a large coffee crop in the next few months. Coffee option premiums are very high.

2/29/08 Coffee futures prices hit another contract high this week after a brief pullback. Vietnam is still hoarding supplies and Brazil is worried about continued dry weather affecting the coffee yields. The softs sector, excluding orange juice and lumber seem to be playing catch up with the other commodities like grains, metals and energies who are at all time highs. Coffee's all time high is over $3. Coffee option premiums are very high.

2/22/08 Coffee futures prices hit new contract highs this week based on the lack of Brazilian moisture and major fund buying. The weak US Dollar and a perceived draw down in global supplies is also supporting coffee prices. Coffee futures prices are still around 50% below their all time high and look cheap to speculators compared to grains, metals and energies which are all at or near all time highs. Vietnam, the largest producer of robusta coffee, is currently hoarding supplies artificially elevating prices for the second most popular drink in the world. Coffee option premiums are high.

2/15/08 Coffee futures prices are still rallying and hit contract highs this week. Brazil is having lack of moisture issues and the drought at the end of last year may have already put a dent in yields. The weak US Dollar and fund buying is also helping push prices higher. Coffee option premiums are high.

2/8/08 Coffee futures prices broke out to a contract high after expectations of a slightly smaller Brazilian coffee crop. Coffee futures have been a fund favorite with the other soft commodities such as cocoa, sugar and cotton recently. Many other commodities are near all time highs but the softs are mostly near the lows to average ranges for prices. Coffee option premiums are high.

2/1/08 Coffee futures prices have been trading toward the upper end of their twelve month range based on unknown damage to the Brazilian coffee crop caused by the drought during the flowering stage. Brazil produces about 1/3 of all of the world's coffee. Coffee option premiums are high.

-T & K Futures and Options Inc.

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