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Wheat futures and options quick facts:
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5,000 bushel contract size
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One cent move equals $50
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Trades March, May, July, September,
December
2/3/12 Wheat futures prices rallied this week as the U.S. dollar
is continuing its slide. The USD is now down 3 full basis points
over the last few weeks which is helping to push many commodity
markets higher. Friday's strong jobs report is also helping
commodity prices strengthen. It also seems that bad European
Union headlines are having less affect on the markets and the
worst case may already be factored into many of these markets.
Black Sea wheat production problems are also lending strength to
the wheat market.
1/27/12 Wheat futures prices are trading mostly higher again
this week. The bullish news was the weakening U.S. dollar that
continues its 2 week slide of about 3 full basis points which
helps push dollar denominated commodity markets higher. The FOMC
meeting left rates unchanged and opened the door for more
quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve Bank. European
sovereign debt issues and saber rattling from Iran seemed to
have little affect on the markets.
1/20/12 Wheat futures prices traded mostly sideways this week in
spite of the recent influx of capital from hedge funds and other
large speculators into the commodity markets and especially the
soft sector pushed many commodity markets higher. The recent
successful debt auctions from Spain and France helped stabilize
the European Union for the near term and in turn weaken the U.S.
dollar.
1/6/12 Wheat futures prices traded mostly sideways to down this
week. The U.S. dollar rose to new contract highs as concerns
over European banks pushed the Eurocurrency down to a 16 month
low. New tensions with Iran and its nuclear program has pushed
American and British aircraft carriers to enter the Persian Gulf
and the Straits of Hormuz and in turn pushed crude oil prices to
the highs.
12/23/11 Wheat futures prices rallied this week with many other
commodity markets as the U.S. dollar sold off from its contract
highs in the thin volume holiday trade that is typical for this
week and next. Iran tensions pushed oil higher and positive
economic reports out of the U.S. and Europe also pushed
investors back into risk assets like stocks and commodities.
12/16/11 Wheat futures prices sold off this week along with most
other commodity markets. The lack of an additional quantitative
easing announcement by Bernanke and the Federal Reserve Bank at
the FOMC meeting surprised some market participants and
pressured the markets. More bad news out of Europe and very
positive news from the U.S. economy pushed more assets in to the
U.S. dollar as it hit another high kept the stock markets
trading down to sideways as well.
12/9/11 Wheat futures prices traded mostly down this week again
as most of the commodity and stock markets took their
directional cues from the European headlines again. In other
words, bad news out of the European Union pressured the markets
and good news helped push markets higher. The week ended on a
positive note as the European Union summit yielded ideas of
tightening anti-deficit rules and punishments for member
countries. This heartened the markets as it symbolized the idea
that forced accountability of member nations may curb government
spending. Also pressuring wheat prices was the recent USDA
report showing U.S. ending stocks up 50 million bushels from
last month and world production up 9.3 metric tons.
12/2/11 Wheat futures prices rallied this week along with many
other commodity markets. Crude oil broke through $100 a barrel
as Iranian students broke into the United Kingdon embassy in
Tehran. Positive job growth in the U.S. and other encouraging
economic data helped many commodities push higher. Also adding
to the bullish tone was stability in Europe as a concerted
effort by 5 central banks to add liquidity to Europe eased some
fears and a sell off in the U.S. dollar also helped commodity
prices.
11/25/11 Wheat futures prices traded mostly down along with the
majority of the commodity markets. The U.S. dollar index rallied
almost to its October 4th high which is coincidentally when many
commodity markets' made their recent contract lows. The recent
German bond auction was a failure and couldn't managed to sell
all of the bonds issued as more problems out of Italy and Greece
hurt the European Union as investors flee to cash and the U.S.
treasury markets.
11/18/11 Wheat futures prices traded mostly down this week as
more problems came out of the European Union suppressing most
commodity rally attempts. The talk of Italy potentially
defaulting on its debt and Italian bond yields breaching the
critical 7% area hindered most bullish support for most markets.
The European Central Bank chose to purchase Italian and Spanish
bonds to support the markets and prove that they would support
the teetering European Union and its weak links from default.
11/4/11 Wheat futures prices traded mostly sideways this week as
more uncertainty about Greek and Italian solvency added to
European Union woes. Also adding to the uncertainty was the
bankruptcy declaration by MF Global who supposedly was
overleveraged in European high risk assets and it was a very bad
bet. This uncertainty pushed assets towards the U.S. dollar and
U.S. treasuries pushing both higher on the week. The strong
dollar often depresses dollar denominated assets like
commodities.
10/14/11 Wheat futures prices traded mostly sideways this week
in spite of the positive rhetoric out of the European Union and
the idea that the EU has plenty of assets to back up its support
of failing economys like Greece, Spain and Italy has led
investors back into stocks and commodities. The U.S. dollar
continues its fall which is also helping out the dollar
demoninated commodity markets become more bullish.
10/7/11 Wheat futures prices traded mostly sideways this week
from its lows. The market moving news of the week was Moodys'
cutting the senior debt and deposit ratings of 12 UK financial
institutions while at the same time the European Commission put
together a possible coordinated European bank recapitalization
plan to stabilize weak links in the financial chain like Greece
and Italy. Market volatility continues to be extreme in stock
and commodity futures contracts.
9/30/11 Wheat futures prices came down again this week along
with most other commodity markets as more problems with Greece
and its potential default to its bond holders and other European
woes has led to an extremely volatile trading environment for
stocks and commodity investors. The U.S. dollar is also near its
recent highs which is also hindering the bulls for now.
9/23/11 Wheat futures prices sold off this week along with just
about every other commodity as more problems out of the European
Union and Federal Reserve Bank chairman Ben Bernanke saying that
the U.S. economy was probably going to slip back into a
recession. This fear of a double dip global recession sent
investors fleeing out of the stock and commodity markets around
the globe and strengthened the U.S. dollar significantly.
9/16/11 Wheat futures prices sold off this week along with most
other commodity contracts as more European soveriegn debt
problems (Greece) and more bad economic reports out of the
United States have come together to add more uncertainty about
the world's economic future. The weakening U.S. dollar did
little to prop up commodity prices. Volatility can be extreme at
times as the market reacts to economic reports.
9/1/11 Wheat futures prices sold off by about 60 cents this week
in spite of the strengthening U.S. dollar and the idea that the
Federal Reserve Bank is thinking about another round of
quantitative easing to stimulate the economy as interest rates
should remain low until 2013 if not longer.
8/19/11 Wheat futures prices had an extremely volatile week
along with most of the rest of the commodity markets. The stock
market indices were quite volatile and affected most other asset
classes as European Union problems resurfaced again and put many
investors in doubt about future U.S. and global growth prospects
over the near term.
8/5/11 Wheat futures prices have been mostly sideways this week.
This week's main stories are about Europe's continued problems
and the foreseeable end of the European Union as the PIIGS
continue to harm. A slower global economy and the 10% correction
in the U.S. stock markets have many commodity investors heading
for the sidelines.
7/29/11 Wheat futures prices have been trading mostly sideways
this week as the United States faces a political impasse on
raising the debt ceiling. This has led to talk about the U.S.
losing its AAA credit rating and potentially defaulting on its
debt obligations. The U.S. dollar is trading sideways near its
lows probably because things seem to be even worse in Europe.
Many of the other commodity markets have also been trading
sideways for the most part.
7/15/11 Wheat futures prices are trading sideways this week as
Ben Bernanke left the door open for QE3 or printing more U.S.
dollars to be used for buying treasuries to help buoy the
economy. Also the European Bank Authority said 8 out of 90 banks
failed their stress tests this week. 5 were from Spain, 2 from
Greece and one from Austria. The U.S. dollar sold off this week.
7/1/11 Wheat futures prices sold off by about 70 cents per
bushel this week as corn prices crashed and in spite of fact
that the U.S. dollar lost about 2 basis points once the markets
decided that the greek soveriegn debt issues would be resolved
for the short term in spite of the agreement that most analyst
share that Greece is doomed to be bankrupt sooner or later. Many
commodity sectors look to be selling off such as the precious
metals, energies and grains seem to be trending sideways to down
over the near term.
6/24/11 Wheat futures prices are trading mostly sideways to down
about 20 cents per bushel this week in spite of the collapse in
crude oil prices. The Obama administration decided to release 30
million barrels of oil from the strategic petroleum reserve to
help pressure energy prices. The International Energy Agency
plans to add 2 million barrels a day from non-OPEC reserves.
Also pressuring the markets is the idea that Greece will default
sooner or later and may be released from the European Union in
order to strengthen the Euro. Reports of slower growth out of
India and China is also pressuring commodity prices in general.
6/10/11 Wheat futures prices traded mostly sideways this week as
the USDA report showed production figures increase 15 million
bushels to 2.058 from the May estimate. The U.S. ending stocks
were revised down to 809 million bushels from 879 million. Lower
imports and higher exports were seen as the cause.
6/3/11 Wheat futures prices rallied this week in spite of quite
a bit of bad U.S. economic data in manufacturing, housing and
jobs has consumer confidence falling along with the stock market
and most of the commodity markets. Many economists fear a soft
patch in the economy this summer and a slowing of Asian demand
for many commodities as attempts to battle inflation by raising
rates are slowing growth.
5/27/11 Wheat futures prices are trading sideways along with
most of the other commodity markets as large speculators such as
hedge funds seem to be exiting the riskier assets. The lack of
aggressive buying and selling of these futures contracts has
caused many of them to trade sideways in small trading ranges.
The recent 3 cent rally in the US dollar should have been more
of a catalyst pushing commodity prices higher but this has
largely been ignored. This is most likely caused by the
perception that China's economy may be slowing down as well.
5/20/11 Wheat futures prices rallied about 80 cents per bushel
this week even as the US dollar continues to strengthen and
investors seem to be heading for the exit when it comes to their
riskier assets and are getting in to cash and cash equivalents.
The volatility in many markets has dropped considerably as some
like silver, gold, crude oil and cotton are consolidating
sideways. This in turn is bringing option premiums back down to
more normal levels for some markets as this volatility premium
is taken out of the options.
5/13/11 Wheat futures prices sold off again this week as the
market digests the idea that Greece may default on its debt just
a year after this same predicament that forced Germany to infuse
money into the system. This news crushed the Euro Currency and
pushed the US dollar higher which in turn hurt most commodity
prices and pushed volatility much higher. Quantitative easing is
set to end this summer which might be why the stock market is
soft in spite of energy prices coming down violently. Option
premiums are very high for most commodities because of the
recent volatility.
5/6/11 Wheat futures prices sold off this week along with most
of the other commodity markets. A cocktail of bearish happenings
have been a catalyst initiating a huge exodus out of risk assets
to reduce investors' risk exposure. The ECB president Trichet
let the market know that a ECB rate hike is not a done deal in
July which in turn pushed the US dollar up a full basis point.
Also hitting the markets were the CME group's increase in silver
margin requirements which totalled 5 increases over the last 2
weeks which pushed weak longs out of the market and caused
silver to correct by about 25% making it the worst sell off
since the early 1980's. Lastly, many US economic reports have
been weaker than expected which is weakening the confidence of a
strong economic recovery in the US over the near term.
4/29/11 Wheat futures prices rallied about 50 cents per bushel
this week in spite of the Midwest flooding. The FOMC meeting
left Bernanke signalling that QE 3 would not happen and QE 2
would end in June and that interest rates will probably stay on
hold for a while leaving the US dollar to get crushed as other
countries plan on continued interest rates hikes to fight
inflation and attract foreign assets to the stronger currencies.
4/22/11 Wheat futures prices rallied about 50 cents per bushel
this week along with most of the other commodities as the US
dollar hit levels not seen since the "Great Recession" summer of
2008. The market seems to be factoring in an unwillingness by
the United States' federal reserve bank to raise interest rates
in spite of the fact that many other economies like Australia,
China and the European Union are raising interest rates. This
rising interest rate environment draws money away from US
investments into stronger currency assets.
4/8/11 Coffee futures prices traded mostly sideways around the
$7.77 per bushel level this week bucking the uptrends of many
other commodity markets as the bulls seem to have control for
now. Gold hit an all time high and crude oil broke through $110
a barrel pulling other commodities with them. The US dollar
coincidentally hit new contract lows this week as well. The new
earthquake in Japan seems to be a non-event this time for the
markets.
4/1/11 Wheat future prices were mostly higher arouond $7.63 per
bushel this week. The recent Grain Stocks/Prospective Plantings
report showed farmers are planting more wheat than expected and
stocks were up 5% prom last year but quality is a concern
because of bad weather. Wheat option premiums are high.
3/25/11 Wheat futures prices were mostly higher this week based
on the fact that the risk trades like commodities were the
weekly theme. The Japan nuclear scare seems to have been averted
for the most part and the markets factored in a worst case
scenario which caused the massive sell off last week. The
tensions in the Middle East seem to be growing which pushed
crude oil prices over the $105 level. The US dollar has been
sliding for most of the month of March which is also helping
push most commodity futures prices higher. The March 31st
prospective plantings report may add more volatility to the
wheat market.
3/18/11 Wheat futures prices came down this week along with most
of the commodity and stock markets as investors try to figure
out what affects the tsunami and its destruction of the cities
and nuclear plants in Japan will have over the short, medium and
long terms. Japan's economy is the 3rd largest in the world and
demand destruction for some commodities may occur.
3/11/11 Wheat futures prices are coming down after a volatile
few weeks in the commodity markets. Geopolitical issues in the
Middle East put the bias in the commodity markets in the hands
of the bulls for the last few weeks but the buy the rumor sell
the fact side of the equation and China's first trade deficit in
many years seems to be behind the massive liquidation of most of
the commodity markets.
3/4/11 Wheat futures prices rallied again this week as the world
wonders about the violence and ubiquitous unrest in northern
Africa and the middle east. Egyptians got rid of their despot.
Libya is trying along with Bahrain, Tunisia and others which is
pushing crude oil prices sky high again. Higher oil prices are
very inflationary and helps push the bias of all dollar
denominated commodities higher.
2/11/11 Wheat futures prices continue to rally with most of the
grain markets this week after the bullish USDA supply and demand
report. The uprising in Egypt by the people to oust the long
time president out of power has turned violent and caused many
commodity markets to become very volatile because of the belief
that turmoil may spread to other Muslim countries near Egypt. On
February 10th the ousted president appointed his vice president
as ruler much to the dismay of the protesters.
2/4/11 Wheat futures prices rallied this week as worry about the
Egyptian uprising spreading to other Muslim countries had the
markets on edge. In spite of the Suez canal being only
responsible for about 3% of the oil shipping, the oil markets
rallied and pulled many other markets higher as well. The idea
that inflation and especially food and energy inflation is
starting to get traction in the media and may have a significant
impact of the economy soon.
1/28/11 Wheat futures prices hit contract highs this week as the
grain markets remain strong after the January USDA supply and
demand report showed lower supplies than expected. The recent
weakness in the US dollar is also helping with demand from
foreign buyers. Wheat option premiums are high.
1/21/11 Wheat futures prices followed the trend of most of the
other commodity markets as they sold off violently in
anticipation that China will step up its efforts to quell
inflation by making it harder to get money out of its main banks
by increasing reserve requirements and raising interest rates.
1/7/11 Wheat futures prices continue to sell off this week as
the US dollar continues to strengthen as new Eurozone problems
continue to add uncertainty in the markets. Heavier grain sales
usually occur after January 1 as farmers delay sales to spread
out the tax liability to the next year. Last year's grain
markets hit their lows in February.
12/24/10 Wheat futures prices rallied again this week. The week
before and after Christmas are notoriously thinly traded and the
markets can have very volatile price swings because of the lack
of trading volume. Many money managers call it quits for the
year in early December to lock in before year end.
12/17/10 Wheat futures prices have been selling off in spite of
the recent rallies in corn and soybeans. The idea that global
supplies will be ample and that prices over reacted to the
drought in Russia may also be weakening wheat prices.
12/3/10 Wheat futures prices have been running this week as the
European Union has decided to give Ireland the loan it needs so
that it won't have to default on its debt. Also helping the
market is the idea that the worst of the problems in the United
States are in the past and its economy will likely begin to grow
at a better pace than expected. There is also the idea that
capital gains taxes and taxes on dividends will not be
implemented now that republicans are in charge.
11/19/10 Wheat futures prices sold off again this week as China
raised interest rates in an attempt to slow its overheating
economy and inflation. Also pressuring the commodity markets was
the idea that Ireland may default on loans might lead to more
Eurozone economic problems coming soon.
11/12/10 Wheat futures prices are correcting significantly after
the huge run up in prices. The most prevelant perception is that
the global recovery may be stalling based on worse than expected
economic reports as of late and the idea that China will hike
interest rates to battle inflation which should push commodities
lower.
11/5/10 Wheat futures prices are still heading higher as the
FOMC meeting yielded more quantitative easing by the Fed.
Printing more money should lead to high inflation or
hyperinflation for the next few years. Especially when you
consider the fact that the Fed bought so much of the toxic real
estate assets from Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. It makes sense
that they won't raise rates to fight inflation because it would
cost the government billions of dollars.
10/22/10 Wheat futures prices are still trading sideways and
supply and demand seem to be offsetting each other keeping wheat
in a sideways trading pattern. The recent strength in the US
Dollar is not helping export demand.
10/15/10 Wheat futures prices are following corn prices higher
and the current prices for wheat may be unjustified for now.
Strong fund buying has been blamed for much of the moves in
grains recently. Wheat option volatility premiums are high.
10/8/10 Wheat futures prices are trading sideways for the last
couple of weeks. The recent USDA report showed US ending stocks
down 49 million bushels and global production down 1 million
tons. Global consumption was up 2.1 million tons. The market
reaction to this report is limit up.
9/24/10 Wheat futures prices are still running as dry weather
may slow wheat planting in Russia's Volga Valley and the North
Caucasus regions which accounts for about 40% of the former
Soviet Union's wheat belt.
9/17/10 Wheat futures prices came down this week as news that
Australian came out with a larger than expected crop estimate
may mean that global supplies might not be as tight as expected
after the Russian drought problems. Wheat options have high
premiums right now.
9/10/10 Wheat futures prices are trading sideways for the most
part this week as talk of Russia lifting export bans sooner than
expected battles with news that cold weather over the next 2
weeks will hurt the Canadian grains that are still unharvested.
8/20/10 Wheat futures prices were trading sideways this week as
Russia has a ban on wheat exports for the rest of the year and
the Ukraine is also limiting wheat exports. Russia may have to
import wheat this year but recent rains may help what left of
the crop.
8/13/10 Wheat futures prices are still up but below the recent
highs as the yields from the Russian areas crops are still
uncertain and if the hot dry weather persists it may hinder the
next year's crop plantings.
8/6/10 Wheat futures prices are still up on the news of the
drought in Russia, Kazakhstan and the Ukraine may force those
countries to limit exports. Wheat futures prices hit a 23 month
high this week.
8/2/10 Wheat futures prices are still running higher as the
extremely dry Russian weather and the extremely wet Canadian
weather may hurt wheat yields and drive business to the US
markets. There is also the possibility that Russian may ban
wheat exports if it gets any worse.
7/24/10 Wheat futures prices are still near the recent 13 month
highs that were recently hit as the Black Sea region's draought
may dramatically hurt wheat yields in the area. The recent
weakness in the US Dollar may also be helping prices of US
wheat.
7/10/10 Wheat futures prices rallied this week to a 4 month
high. The drought in Russia may hurt yields and in the US bad
weathe is delaying the winter wheat harvest. The recent USDA
supply and demand report showed US ending stocks up from .991 to
1.373 million bushels. The world ending stocks came in down from
194 to 187 million tons.
7/2/10 Wheat futures prices rallied this week to a 6 week high
after the USDA planted acreage and quarterly grain stocks report
came out. Spring wheat acres came in at 13.91 million acres
which is up 5% from a year ago. All wheat acres came in at 54.31
million acres which is down 8% from a year ago and is more than
expected. The all wheat stocks came in at 973 million bushels
which is up 48% from a year ago.
6/24/10 Wheat futures prices are trading sideways this week. The
plentiful supplies may soon be minimized if the US Dollar
continues to weaken making US grains more affordable to foreign
buyers.
6/11/10 Wheat futures prices sold off again this week as plenty
of global supply coupled with prospects of lower global demand
based on European debt issues are pressuring prices. The recent
USDA report showed US ending stocks come down from 997 to 991
million bushels and world ending stocks come down from 198 to
194 million tons.
6/4/10 Wheat futures prices sold off this week along with most
of the commodity sector and the new highs for the US Dollar and
the idea that global demand may slow is pressuring grain prices.
5/28/10 Wheat futures prices came down this week as the strong
US Dollar coupled with the very large supplies available make
any rallies in wheat weak at best.
5/21/10 Wheat futures prices came down with the rest of the
commodity markets this week as the European problems stemming
from Greece and the other PIIGS are expected to hurt demand for
many commodities. Investors seem to be choosing cash over stocks
and commodities for now.
5/14/10 Wheat futures prices came down this week. The recent
USDA report showed US ending stocks at 997 million bushels up
from 950 million bushels. The world ending stocks rose from 193
million tons to 198 million tons.
5/7/10 Wheat futures prices sold off this week as the Greece
problems push investors to decrease their risk appetites and buy
gold, US Dollars and US Treasuries. Grains have been pressured
by the increasing US Dollar values.
4/25/10 Wheat futures prices rallied this week along with many
other commodity markets as the idea that many economies around
the globe are begining to strengthen including the United States
will help increase demand for commodities.
4/16/10 Wheat futures prices rallied this week as the US Dollar
continues to weaken and the other grain markets have been
gaining strength recently. Wheat option premiums are high.
4/9/10 Wheat futures prices rallied this week on the idea that
many economies around the world are improving which should in
turn increase demand for the grain markets. The recent strength
in the US Dollar has been limiting upside gains.
3/27/10 Wheat futures prices came down with the rest of the
grains recently to a contract low as slow exports and boutiful
supplies look to keep the global inventories high. The recent
strength in the US Dollar is also helping to keep a lid on
prices.
2/26/10 Wheat futures prices traded mostly sideways this week as
the strong US Dollar is keeping a lid on rallies and the recent
report from the International Grain Council estimated that world
supplies for 2010-11 would increase from 653 to 659 million
tons. Wheat option premiums are high.
2/12/10 Wheat future prices steadied this week as the idea that
Europe will help Greece with its financial problems weakened the
US Dollar and caused many commodity markets to rally. The USDA
report showed US ending stocks up from 976 to 981 million
bushels and world ending stocks up from 195.6 to 195.9 million
tons.
2/5/10 Wheat futures prices sold off this week along with most
of the other commodity markets as the recent strength in the US
Dollar is expected to hurt demand for commodities. The recent
attempts by China to tighten monetary policy also has investors
wondering if the global economic recovery will continue.
1/30/10 Wheat futures prices came down again this week as the
strength in the US Dollar continues. The recent USDA report that
estimates that ending stocks will be the highest in 22 years is
also keeping the bulls from being able to get a run up in
prices. Wheat prices hit their lowest close in 4 months.
1/22/10 Wheat futures prices fell this week along with most of
the other commodity markets as the US Dollar strengthened and
the idea that China is trying to slow its economy by raising
rates and increasing the amount of capital reserves its banks
must keep will diminish demand.
1/15/10 Wheat futures prices fell this week as the USDA supply
and demand report showed US ending stocks rise from 900 to 976
million bushels and world ending stocks rise from 191 to 196
million tons. The winter wheat seedings are down 14% from a year
ago (smallest since 1913) but the stocks to usage ration is 49%
which is the highest since 1986-87.
1/8/10 Wheat futures prices rallied this week as the below zero
temperatures may have damaged the winter wheat crops especially
in Nebraska and Kansas this week.
1/1/10 Wheat futures prices rallied recently as the severe
weather in the central plains may have damaged the winter wheat
crop. Wheat options premiums are high.
12/11/09 Wheat futures prices sold off about 10 cents this week
as the US Dollar continues to strengthen. The USDA report showed
US ending stocks up from 885 to 900 million bushels. The world
ending stocks came in at 191 million tons. This is up from 188
million tons last month.
12/4/09 Wheat futures prices fell this week as the upbeat US
jobs report pushed the US Dollar dramatically higher as an
interest rate hike may now come sooner than expected.
11/28/09 Wheat futures prices rallied along with the other
grains this week as the US Dollar hit an 18 month low versus the
Eurocurrency. The weak US Dollar makes US grains look cheap to
foreign buyers which may use up the current burdensome supply
picture. Wheat option premiums are high.
11/20/09 Wheat futures prices rallied along with the other
grains as the US Dollar hit another contract low this week
making US grains look cheap to foreign buyers. The current wheat
crop looks to be in good shape this year.
11/13/09 Wheat futures prices held steady this week as the USDA
estimated that US ending stocks rose from 864 million bushels to
885 million bushels and world ending stocks rose from 187
million tons to 188 million tons.
11/6/09 Wheat futures prices sold off this week along with the
other grains and the energy markets and in spite of the
continued weakness in the US Dollar.
10/24/09 Wheat futures prices are rallying with the other grains
in spite of the recent bounce in the US Dollar and the recent
cold and wet weather throughout the Midwest.
10/12/09 Wheat futures prices are rallying as the US Dollar
continues to weaken towards 12 month lows as rumors that some
countries will switch away from the US Dollar as a reserve
currency. The recent USDA report showed US ending stocks for
wheat increasing from 743 to 864 million bushels and world
ending stocks stay the same at 187 million tons.
9/25/09 Wheat futures prices sold off this week as the US Dollar
bounced off of its yearly lows and harvest delays have not been
an issue lately.
9/18/09 Wheat futures prices rallied this week helped by the
weakening US Dollar and the idea that the global economy is
starting to strengthen may increase demand for wheat.
9/11/09 Wheat futures prices are near the lows again this week
as. The USDA report showed US ending stocks unchanged at 743
million bushels and the world ending stocks were increased from
184 million tons to 187 million tons. Wheat option premiums are
high.
9/4/09 Wheat futures prices are near contract lows as the
expectation for a huge global crop and a recent weak demand
offsets the falling value of the US Dollar. Wheat option
premiums are high.
8/21/09 Wheat futures prices are being pressured by slow export
demand and the extra supplies as the US harvest is nearing
completion. On the bullish side farmers are reluctant to let go
of supplies because the cash prices are sometime nearly a dollar
below the futures prices. Wheat option premiums are high.
8/7/09 Wheat futures prices are coming down in spite of the
weakening US Dollar and the perception that the global economy
is improving. Wheat option premiums are high.
7/31/09 Wheat futures prices are still down as the USDA reports
that wheat exports are down 43% from a year ago. Wheat option
premiums are high.
7/20/09 Wheat futures prices are still coming down as the
expectation of record production around the globe and slow
demand numbers are offsetting any bullishness based on the US
Dollar being near its recent lows. Wheat option premiums are
high.
7/10/09 Wheat futures prices sold off this week as the most
recent USDA report showed US ending stocks up form 647 to 706
million bushels and world ending stocks down from 183 to 181
million tons. Wheat option premiums are high.
7/4/09 Wheat futures prices sold off this week to the lowest
close in 7 months as the USDA acreage report showed 59.78
million acres planted which was higher than expected. Wheat
option premiums are high.
6/21/09 Wheat futures prices sold off along with the rest of the
grain markets as the US Dollar rebounds from its lows. Wheat
option premiums are high.
6/5/09 Wheat futures prices hit a 7 month high as dry conditions
in Argentina battles with the high prices potentially hurting
demand. Wheat option premiums are high.
5/30/09 Wheat futures prices are higher this week and hit a 4
month high price. Recent good planting progress is being offset
by the earlier delays. The weakening US Dollar is very bullish
for grain prices. Wheat option premiums are high.
5/22/09 Wheat futures prices are up this week in spite of the
Australian crop estimates being bigger than expected. Wet
conditions are still hampering planting progress. Wheat option
premiums are high.
5/15/09 Wheat futures prices are up as the USDA report showed US
ending stocks down form 669 to 637 million tons and world ending
stocks up to 182 form 167 million tons. The USDA expects world
wheat production to be the second highest in history. Wheat
option premiums are high.
5/8/09 Wheat future prices are rallying as wet and cool weather
is hindering planting progress across the grain belt. Wheat
option premiums are high.
4/30/09 Wheat futures prices are consolidating sideways. The
recent swine flu scare hurt prices this week. Wheat option
premiums are high.
4/23/09 Wheat futures prices are still coming down in spite of
the drop in the crop quality compared to last year. Wheat prices
are trading between $5 and $5.25. Wheat option premiums are
high.
4/10/09 Wheat futures prices came down as the USDA estimates
that US ending stocks were down form 712 to 696 million bushels
but world ending stocks jumped from 156 to 158 million tons.
Wheat option premiums are high.
3/27/09 Wheat futures prices are selling off in spite of drought
conditions in the winter wheat planting areas of the west and
the falling US Dollar.
3/20/09 Wheat futures prices rallied this week as inflation may
soon replace the deflationary cycle that we are currently in
which is the worst since the Great Depression. The recent move
by the Fed to print a trillion dollars and use them to buy
treasuries has significantly decreased the value of the US
Dollar. Wheat option premiums are high.
3/13/09 Wheat futures prices are still coming down as the USDA
report showed US ending stocks up 57 million bushels and world
ending stocks up 1.6 tons higher than last months report. Wheat
option premiums are high.
3/7/09 Wheat futures prices are selling off this week as the
massive sell off in the stock market is pressuring futures
prices. Wheat option premiums are high.
2/27/09 Wheat futures prices are trading sideways this week as a
lack of fundamental news does not favor the bulls or the bears.
Wheat option premiums are high.
2/13/09 Wheat futures prices are trading down as the USDA report
showed US ending stocks the same at 655 million bushels and
world ending stocks up form 148 to 150 million tons. Wheat
option premiums are high.
2/6/09 Wheat futures prices are trading sideways in a $1 price
range. Canadian wheat stocks are up 36% from a year ago and a
burdensome amount of global supplies are expected. Wheat option
premiums are high.
1/30/09 Wheat futures prices recently suffered a failed rally
attempt. The selloff in corn and soybeans based on the
expectation of much needed precipitation in South America also
pressured wheat prices. Also hurting prices is the expectation
of a huge world crop coming soon. Wheat option premiums are
high.
1/16/09 Wheat futures prices were down this week after the USDA
reports showed US ending stocks up from 623 to 655 million
bushels and world ending stocks up from 147 to 148 million tons.
Wheat option premiums are high.
1/10/09 Wheat futures prices followed the other grain markets
higher this week. Wheat option premiums are high.
12/27/08 Wheat futures prices rallied this week along with the
rest of the grains in thin holiday trade. Wheat option premiums
are high.
12/19/08 Wheat futures prices have rallied as farmers worry that
there is not enough snow cover to protect new wheat plants from
the cold weather. The weak US Dollar is also helping strengthen
prices as export demand increases. Wheat option premiums are
high.
12/12/08 Wheat futures prices rallied some this week along with
the rest of the commodity markets as the US Dollar fell sharply
from its highs. The USDA estimates that the US ending stocks
increased from 603 to 623 million bushels and world ending
stocks increased from 145 to 147 million tons.
12/05/08 Wheat futures prices fell with the rest of the grain
markets this week as the US Dollar rallied and the global
economy weakens more. Wheat option premiums are high.
11/30/08 Wheat futures prices are trading sideways as the
potential deflationary period may be replaced by inflation as
rates continue to go down. Wheat option premiums are high.
11/21/08 Wheat futures prices are still coming down along with
the rest of the grain market. Wheat option premiums are high.
11/7/08 Wheat futures prices are still selling off in spite of
Australia's reduction in expected crop production from 22.5 to
19.9 million tons because of low moisture. Wheat option premiums
are high.
11/1/08 Wheat futures prices are holding lower prices in spite
of harvest being behind the 5 year average. The strong US Demand
and the perception of a large global crop are keeping a lid on
rallies. Wheat option premiums are high.
10/24/08 Wheat futures prices are still coming down with the
rest of the commodity markets as massive deleveraging in the
stock and commodity markets continues. The large repatriation of
US Dollars back into the US is helping push the US Dollar to 3
year highs. This rally along with the expectations of a global
recession are expected to hurt demand over the near term. Wheat
option premiums are high.
10/10/08 Wheat futures prices are falling based on the USDA
report showing US ending stocks up from 574 to 601 million
bushels and the world ending stocks increased from 140 to 144
million tons. Demand destruction and the higher US Dollar have
been named as reasons for the fall. Wheat option premiums are
high.
10/6/08 Wheat futures prices are falling as the flight to
liquidity, fears of a global recession and the strong US Dollar
are hurting grain prices. Wheat option premiums are high.
9/26/08 Wheat futures prices are falling as estimates for the
world ending stocks are forecast to be the highest in 3 years.
Wheat option premiums are high.
9/19/08 Wheat futures prices fell with the other grains as a
rush to liquidity hit the commodity markets. Wheat option
premiums are high.
9/12/08 Wheat futures prices have been consolidating. The USDA
estimates that US ending stocks remained at 574 million bushels
and world ending stocks were up to 140 million tons from 136
million tons last month. Wheat option premium are high.
9/5/08 Wheat futures prices sold off this week based on the idea
that the global supplies for wheat will be robust based on the
potential for a huge global harvest. Prices are at a 9 month
low. Wheat option premiums are high.
8/29/08 Wheat futures prices sold off this week based on
favorable weather in many of the major wheat producing areas
around the world and the potential for a record global crop.
Wheat option premiums are high.
8/22/08 Wheat futures prices rallied this week based on the
correction in the US Dollar and in spite of the potential
slowdown in demand because of slowing European and Asian
economies. Wheat option premiums are high.
8/15/08 Wheat futures prices are trying to rally this week in
spite of the USDA report showing US ending stocks increasing
from 537 to 574 million bushels and the world ending stocks
increasing from 133 to 136 million tons. Wheat option premiums
are high.
8/8/08 Wheat futures prices sold off $5 since March based on
good weather and a strong US Dollar. The European Union harvest
is going well and yields are high. Wheat option premiums are
high.
7/25/08 Wheat futures prices sold off this week as 71% of the
winter wheat crop is harvested causing some harvest pressure on
prices because of increased supplies. Australia is expecting a
potential record wheat crop this year. Wheat option premiums are
high.
7/18/08 Wheat futures prices fell this week in the wake of the
broad based commodity sell off led by crude oil. A burdensome
global wheat crop may put a lid on any rallies in wheat futures
over the near term. Wheat option premiums are high.
7/11/08 Wheat futures prices rallied this week in spite of the
USDA estimates of US Ending stocks rising from 487 to 537
million bushels and world ending stocks rising from 132 to 133
million tons. Wheat option premiums are high.
7/4/08 Wheat futures prices rallied higher this week following
the other grains and other commodities higher. The weak US
Dollar at the beginning of the week also helped prices. Wheat
option premiums are high.
6/27/08 Wheat futures prices followed the other grains higher
this week as the US Dollar fell sharply which should help export
demand. Wheat option premiums are high.
6/20/08 Wheat futures prices rallied because
of the Australian Bureau of Agricultures reduction of its wheat
estimates from 25.8 million tons to 23.7 based on the dry
weather hurting yields. Wheat option premiums are high.
6/13/08 Wheat futures prices rallied this
week with beans and corn in spite of the USDA supply and demand
report showing an increase in ending stocks from 124 to 132
million tons. Wheat option premiums are high.
6/6/08 Wheat futures prices rallied this
week based on strong demand and the weakening US Dollar. The US
Dollar weakened as the EU talked about raising rates to battle
inflation.
5/30/08 Wheat futures prices are trading
sideways this week. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization is
predicting tight global food supplies until 2017. Wheat option
premiums are high.
5/23/08 Wheat futures prices are still
selling off this week. There are worries about black stem rust
for the world's new crop. This rust is a fungus that takes
healthy plants and turns them into a sickly group of barren
stems producing little to no grain. Wheat option premiums are
still high.
5/15/08 Wheat futures prices sold off in
sympathy to beans and corn. There is a lack of any bullish news
in the markets right now. Wheat option premiums are high.
5/9/08 Wheat futures prices are still
falling this week. The USDA supply and demand report showed US
ending stocks at 483 million bushels which is up from 239
million bushels in 2007-08. The global stocks were at 124
million tons which is up from 110 million tons in 2007-09. Wheat
option premiums are very high.
5/1/08 Wheat futures prices are still coming
down as the global crop production is supposed to be huge and
maybe a record. Wheat option premiums are still very high.
4/25/08 Wheat futures prices sold of the a 3
month low this week based on the estimates of the biggest global
wheat crop in history. India is expected to produce a new record
77 million tons and Canada is expected to increase plantings by
16% this year. Wheat option premiums are still very high.
4/18/08 Wheat futures prices are still in a
sideways to down trend as the current tight supplies are causing
food riots around the world but in a few short months the
biggest crop in history is expected to hit the markets around
the world. Wheat option premiums are very high.
4/11/08 Wheat futures prices sold off this
week in expectation of a huge world wheat crop hitting the
markets soon. The USDA estimates that the US and world supplies
of wheat will be ample once harvest begins. Wheat option
premiums are very high.
4/4/08 Wheat futures prices had another wild
ride this week based on the USDA report showing acreage up 6%
from a year ago and stockpiles down 17%. Also in the news is the
end of the strike by farmers in Argentina. Draught conditions
still persist in some southern wheat areas in the US. Wheat
option premiums are very high.
3/28/08 Wheat futures prices had a wild ride
this week. Many market players are waiting for the USDA
prospective plantings report to come out on March 31. A huge
crop is expected to hit the markets within the next few months.
Wheat option premiums are very high.
3/21/08 Wheat futures prices kept falling
this week as Wall Street hedge funds and commodity funds
liquidated futures positions to cover margin calls in stocks and
to pay back borrowed money. The Bear Stearns issue took the
confidence from investors. The Fed's 75 basis point cut
surprised investors because a full 100 basis point cut was
expected. Wheat option premiums are very high.
3/14/08 Wheat futures prices rallied to a
new contract high after collapsing earlier. The USDA report
showed US ending stocks down from 272 to 242 million bushels.
This is the lowest supply of wheat since the 1946-47 season. The
falling US Dollar and the perception that the Federal Reserve
Bank will continue to cut rates is helping buoy many commodity
futures prices. Wheat option premiums are very high.
3/7/08 Wheat futures prices sold off this
week following the rest of the commodities down. The USDA report
on 3/11 is expected to show an increase in planted acres
expectations. Australia is expected to almost double its wheat
production in 2008 versus 2007. A wheat fungus has been
affecting Asian wheat markets. Wheat option premiums are very
high.
2/29/08 Wheat futures prices hit all time
highs again in a volatile trading week. Wheat futures prices are
up 32% this year so far. The Chinese drought may be worse than
expected and Iraq bought 400,000 tons of hard red winter wheat
this week. MF Global may have been the cause of much of the
volatility when a trader of theirs got stuck in some wheat
futures costing the company around $141 million dollars on the
trade. That's how risky wheat futures are right now. Wheat
option premiums are very high.
2/22/08 Wheat futures prices are still
sliding in based on the idea that record global planted acreage
will offset recent deficits. Huge crops are expected from China,
India, Australia, Eastern Europe and North America to replenish
global stocks after Spring. The USDA planted acreage report
estimates that the wheat crop in the US will be up by 6% to 64
million acres. Wheat option premiums are very high.
2/15/08 Wheat futures prices were wild this
week. Up and down limit in the Chicago exchange off of all time
highs by about $1. The USDA long term projected wheat production
estimates for 2008-9 were up 14%. Farmers all over the world are
planting wheat to take advantage of the record high prices.
Demand is still robust and supplies at all time lows for the
near term. Wheat option premiums are very high.
2/8/08 Wheat futures prices were up limit a
few days this week based on the huge demand and lower global
stockpiles. Supplies of spring wheat are historically low and
getting worse while commercial demand is still strong. If the
USDA estimates are correct, the US has the lowest ending stocks
in 60 years and the global supply is the lowest in 30 years. Bad
weather in many wheat producing countries may make it hard to
build supplies over the near term. Wheat option premiums are
high.
2/1/08
Wheat futures prices rallied through the $9.50 level getting
closer to all time wheat futures price highs. The USDA report
showed the global stocks at 111 million tons which is expected
to pressure wheat futures prices higher. Weather is not expected to be an issue, the Russian
tariffs may cause problems but the
stocks to usage ratio is expected to be the tightest in 25
years. The US Dollar is historically weak which may also spur more demand from foreign buyers
and higher wheat futures prices.
-T & K Futures and Options Inc. |
