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Soybean futures and options quick facts:
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5,000 bushel contract size
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One cent move equals $50
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Trades Jan., Mar., May, July, Aug.,
Sep., Nov., Dec.
2/3/12 Soybean futures prices rallied this week as the U.S.
dollar is continuing its slide. The USD is now down 3 full
basis points over the last few weeks which is helping to
push many commodity markets higher. Friday's strong jobs
report is also helping commodity prices strengthen. It also
seems that bad European Union headlines are having less
affect on the markets and the worst case may already be
factored into many of these markets.
1/27/12 Soybean futures prices are trading mostly higher
again this week. The bullish news was the weakening U.S.
dollar that continues its 2 week slide of about 3 full basis
points which helps push dollar denominated commodity markets
higher. The FOMC meeting left rates unchanged and opened the
door for more quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve
Bank. European sovereign debt issues and saber rattling from
Iran seemed to have little affect on the markets.
1/20/12 Soybean futures prices traded mostly higher this
week as the recent influx of capital from hedge funds and
other large speculators into the commodity markets and
especially the soft sector pushed many commodity markets
higher. The recent successful debt auctions from Spain and
France helped stabilize the European Union for the near term
and in turn weaken the U.S. dollar.
1/6/12 Soybean futures prices traded mostly sideways to down
this week. The U.S. dollar rose to new contract highs as
concerns over European banks pushed the Eurocurrency down to
a 16 month low. New tensions with Iran and its nuclear
program has pushed American and British aircraft carriers to
enter the Persian Gulf and the Straits of Hormuz and in turn
pushed crude oil prices to the highs.
12/23/11 Soybean futures prices rallied this week with many
other commodity markets as the U.S. dollar sold off from its
contract highs in the thin volume holiday trade that is
typical for this week and next. Bad weather in South America
worries some soybean traders. Iran tensions and possible
sanctions pushed oil higher and positive economic reports
out of the U.S. and Europe also pushed investors back into
risk assets like stocks and commodities.
12/16/11 Soybean futures prices sold off this week along
with most other commodity markets. The lack of an additional
quantitative easing announcement by Bernanke and the Federal
Reserve Bank at the FOMC meeting surprised some market
participants and pressured the markets. More bad news out of
Europe and very positive news from the U.S. economy pushed
more assets in to the U.S. dollar as it hit another high
kept the stock markets trading down to sideways as well.
12/9/11 Soybean futures prices traded mostly down this week
again as most of the commodity and stock markets took their
directional cues from the European headlines again. In other
words, bad news out of the European Union pressured the
markets and good news helped push markets higher. The week
ended on a positive note as the European Union summit
yielded ideas of tightening anti-deficit rules and
punishments for member countries. This heartened the markets
as it symbolized the idea that forced accountability of
member nations may curb government spending.
12/2/11 Soybean futures prices traded sideways this week
along with many other commodity markets. Crude oil broke
through $100 a barrel as Iranian students broke into the
United Kingdon embassy in Tehran. Positive job growth in the
U.S. and other encouraging economic data helped many
commodities push higher. Also adding to the bullish tone was
stability in Europe as a concerted effort by 5 central banks
to add liquidity to Europe eased some fears and a sell off
in the U.S. dollar also helped commodity prices.
11/25/11 Soybean futures prices traded mostly down along
with the majority of the commodity markets. The U.S. dollar
index rallied almost to its October 4th high which is
coincidentally when many commodity markets' made their
recent contract lows. The recent German bond auction was a
failure and couldn't managed to sell all of the bonds issued
as more problems out of Italy and Greece hurt the European
Union as investors flee to cash and the U.S. treasury
markets. Harvest is winding down and harvest price pressure
could also be a factor.
11/18/11 Soybean futures prices traded mostly down this week
as more problems came out of the European Union suppressing
most commodity rally attempts. The talk of Italy potentially
defaulting on its debt and Italian bond yields breaching the
critical 7% area hindered most bullish support for most
markets. The European Central Bank chose to purchase Italian
and Spanish bonds to support the markets and prove that they
would support the teetering European Union and its weak
links from default.
11/4/11 Soybean futures prices traded mostly sideways this
week as more uncertainty about Greek and Italian solvency
added to European Union woes. Also adding to the uncertainty
was the bankruptcy declaration by MF Global who supposedly
was overleveraged in European high risk assets and it was a
very bad bet. This uncertainty pushed assets towards the
U.S. dollar and U.S. treasuries pushing both higher on the
week. The strong dollar often depresses dollar denominated
assets like commodities.
10/14/11 Soybean futures prices rose again this week as the
positive rhetoric out of the European Union and the idea
that the EU has plenty of assets to back up its support of
failing economys like Greece, Spain and Italy has led
investors back into stocks and commodities. The U.S. dollar
continues its fall which is also helping out the dollar
demoninated commodity markets become more bullish. The
recent USDA report eximated that soybean yields would be
down 25 million bushels and harvested acres down by 100,000
acres.
10/7/11 Soybean futures prices traded sideways this week
from its lows. The market moving news of the week was
Moodys' cutting the senior debt and deposit ratings of 12 UK
financial institutions while at the same time the European
Commission put together a possible coordinated European bank
recapitalization plan to stabilize weak links in the
financial chain like Greece and Italy. Market volatility
continues to be extreme in stock and commodity futures
contracts.
9/30/11 Soybean futures prices came down again this week
along with most other commodity markets as more problems
with Greece and its potential default to its bond holders
and other European woes has led to an extremely volatile
trading environment for stocks and commodity investors. The
U.S. dollar is also near its recent highs which is also
hindering the bulls for now.
9/23/11 Soybean futures prices sold off this week along with
just about every other commodity as more problems out of the
European Union and Federal Reserve Bank chairman Ben
Bernanke saying that the U.S. economy was probably going to
slip back into a recession. This fear of a double dip global
recession sent investors fleeing out of the stock and
commodity markets around the globe and strengthened the U.S.
dollar significantly.
9/16/11 Soybean futures prices sold off this week along with
most other commodity contracts as more European soveriegn
debt problems (Greece) and more bad economic reports out of
the United States have come together to add more uncertainty
about the world's economic future. The weakening U.S. dollar
did little to prop up commodity prices. Volatility can be
extreme at times as the market reacts to economic reports.
9/1/11 Soybean futures prices rallied by about 60 cents per
bushel this week in spite of the strengthening U.S. dollar
and the idea that the Federal Reserve Bank is thinking about
another round of quantitative easing to stimulate the
economy as interest rates should remain low until 2013 if
not longer.
8/19/11 Soybean futures prices had an extremely volatile
week along with most of the rest of the commodity markets.
The stock market indices were quite volatile and affected
most other asset classes as European Union problems
resurfaced again and put many investors in doubt about
future U.S. and global growth prospects over the near term.
8/5/11 Soybean futures prices have been mostly down this
week. This week's main stories are about Europe's continued
problems and the foreseeable end of the European Union as
the PIIGS continue to harm. A slower global economy and the
10% correction in the U.S. stock markets have many commodity
investors heading for the sidelines.
7/29/11 Soybean futures prices have been trading mostly
sideways this week in spite of the CME lowering the initial
and maintenance margins. The United States faces a political
impasse on raising the debt ceiling. This has led to talk
about the U.S. losing its AAA credit rating and potentially
defaulting on its debt obligations. The U.S. dollar is
trading sideways near its lows probably because things seem
to be even worse in Europe. Many of the other commodity
markets have also been trading sideways for the most part.
7/15/11 Soybean futures prices rallied by about 60 cents per
bushel this week as Ben Bernanke left the door open for QE3
or printing more U.S. dollars to be used for buying
treasuries to help buoy the economy. Also the European Bank
Authority said 8 out of 90 banks failed their stress tests
this week. 5 were from Spain, 2 from Greece and one from
Austria. The U.S. dollar sold off this week.
7/1/11 Soybean futures prices sold off by about 30 cents per
bushel this week in spite of the fact that the USDA
quarterly grain stocks/prospective plantings report showed a
decrease in soybeans by 2.2 million acrease from last year.
The U.S. dollar lost about 2 basis points once the markets
decided that the greek soveriegn debt issues would be
resolved for the short term in spite of the agreement that
most analyst share that Greece is doomed to be bankrupt
sooner or later. Many commodity sectors look to be selling
off such as the precious metals, energies and grains seem to
be trending sideways to down over the near term.
6/24/11 Soybean futures prices are trading mostly sideways
to down about 30 cents per bushel this week in spite of the
collapse in crude oil prices. The Obama administration
decided to release 30 million barrels of oil from the
strategic petroleum reserve to help pressure energy prices.
The International Energy Agency plans to add 2 million
barrels a day from non-OPEC reserves. Also pressuring the
markets is the idea that Greece will default sooner or later
and may be released from the European Union in order to
strengthen the Euro. Reports of slower growth out of India
and China is also pressuring commodity prices in general.
6/10/11 Soybean futures prices are trading mostly higher in
spite of the recent USDA report showing an increase in
2011-12 ending stocks to 190 million from 160 million in the
May report. The recent harvest from Brazil is also eroding
demand for U.S. soybeans.
6/3/11 Soybean futures prices traded mostly sideways to up
this week in spite of quite a bit of bad U.S. economic data
in manufacturing, housing and jobs has consumer confidence
falling along with the stock market and most of the
commodity markets. Many economists fear a soft patch in the
economy this summer and a slowing of Asian demand for many
commodities as attempts to battle inflation by raising rates
are slowing growth.
5/27/11 Soybean futures prices are trading sideways along
with most of the other commodity markets as large
speculators such as hedge funds seem to be exiting the
riskier assets. The lack of aggressive buying and selling of
these futures contracts has caused many of them to trade
sideways in small trading ranges. The recent 3 cent rally in
the US dollar should have been more of a catalyst pushing
commodity prices higher but this has largely been ignored.
This is most likely caused by the perception that China's
economy may be slowing down as well.
5/20/11 Soybean futures prices rallied about 50 cents per
bushel this week even as the US dollar continues to
strengthen and investors seem to be heading for the exit
when it comes to their riskier assets and are getting in to
cash and cash equivalents. The volatility in many markets
has dropped considerably as some like silver, gold, crude
oil and cotton are consolidating sideways. This in turn is
bringing option premiums back down to more normal levels for
some markets as this volatility premium is taken out of the
options.
5/13/11 Soybean futures prices sold off again this week as
the market digests the idea that Greece may default on its
debt just a year after this same predicament that forced
Germany to infuse money into the system. This news crushed
the Euro Currency and pushed the US dollar higher which in
turn hurt most commodity prices and pushed volatility much
higher. Quantitative easing is set to end this summer which
might be why the stock market is soft in spite of energy
prices coming down violently. Option premiums are very high
for most commodities because of the recent volatility.
5/6/11 Soybean futures prices sold off this week along with
most of the other commodity markets. A cocktail of bearish
happenings have been a catalyst initiating a huge exodus out
of risk assets to reduce investors' risk exposure. The ECB
president Trichet let the market know that a ECB rate hike
is not a done deal in July which in turn pushed the US
dollar up a full basis point. Also hitting the markets were
the CME group's increase in silver margin requirements which
totalled 5 increases over the last 2 weeks which pushed weak
longs out of the market and caused silver to correct by
about 25% making it the worst sell off since the early
1980's. Lastly, many US economic reports have been weaker
than expected which is weakening the confidence of a strong
economic recovery in the US over the near term.
4/29/11 Soybean futures prices sold off by about 40 cents
per bushel this week. The FOMC meeting left Bernanke
signalling that QE 3 would not happen and QE 2 would end in
June and that interest rates will probably stay on hold for
a while leaving the US dollar to get crushed as other
countries plan on continued interest rates hikes to fight
inflation and attract foreign assets to the stronger
currencies.
4/22/11 Soybean futures prices rallied about 60 cents
per bushel this week along with most of the other
commodities as the US dollar hit levels not seen since the
"Great Recession" summer of 2008. The market seems to be
factoring in an unwillingness by the United States' federal
reserve bank to raise interest rates in spite of the fact
that many other economies like Australia, China and the
European Union are raising interest rates. This rising
interest rate environment draws money away from US
investments into stronger currency assets.
4/8/11 Soybean futures prices traded sidways to down this
week bucking the uptrends of many other commodity markets as
the bulls seem to have control for now. Gold hit an all time
high and crude oil broke through $110 a barrel pulling other
commodities with them. The US dollar coincidentally hit new
contract lows this week as well. The new earthquake in Japan
seems to be a non-event this time for the markets.
4/1/11 Soybean futures prices are trading mostly higher this
week as the Quarterly Grain Stocks/Prospective Plantings
report showed stocks at 1.25 billion which is down 2% from a
year ago and feed usage higher. The supplies are very tight
and weather may be an issue this summer.
3/25/11 Soybean futures prices were mostly sideways this
week in spite of the fact that the risk trades like
commodities were the weekly theme. The Japan nuclear scare
seems to have been averted for the most part and the markets
factored in a worst case scenario which caused the massive
sell off last week. The tensions in the Middle East seem to
be growing which pushed crude oil prices over the $105
level. The US dollar has been sliding for most of the month
of March which is also helping push most commodity futures
prices higher. The March 31st prospective planting report
may light a fire under beans if acreage slips.
3/18/11 Soybean futures prices came down this week along
with most of the commodity and stock markets as investors
try to figure out what affects the tsunami and its
destruction of the cities and nuclear plants in Japan will
have over the short, medium and long terms. Japan's economy
is the 3rd largest in the world and demand destruction for
some commodities may occur.
3/11/11 Soybean futures prices have been selling off after a
volatile few weeks in the commodity markets. Geopolitical
issues in the Middle East put the bias in the commodity
markets in the hands of the bulls for the last few weeks but
the buy the rumor sell the fact side of the equation and
China's first trade deficit in many years seems to be behind
the massive liquidation of most of the commodity markets.
3/4/11 Soybean futures prices rallied again this week by
about 80 cents per bushel as the world wonders about the
violence and ubiquitous unrest in northern Africa and the
middle east. Egyptians got rid of their despot. Libya is
trying along with Bahrain, Tunisia and others which is
pushing crude oil prices sky high again. Higher oil prices
are very inflationary and helps push the bias of all dollar
denominated commodities higher.
2/11/11 Soybean futures prices traded sideways this week in
spite of the rally with the rest of the grain markets this
week. The uprising in Egypt by the people to oust the long
time president out of power has turned violent and caused
many commodity markets to become very volatile because of
the belief that turmoil may spread to other Muslim countries
near Egypt. On February 10th the ousted president appointed
his vice president as ruler much to the dismay of the
protesters.
2/4/11 Soybean futures prices rallied this week as worry
about the Egyptian uprising spreading to other Muslim
countries had the markets on edge. In spite of the Suez
canal being only responsible for about 3% of the oil
shipping, the oil markets rallied and pulled many other
markets higher as well. The idea that inflation and
especially food and energy inflation is starting to get
traction in the media and may have a significant impact of
the economy soon.
1/28/11 Soybean futures prices are trading sideways near the
top of the range this week after the USDA supply and demand
report earlier in the month showed draw downs in supply and
yields in many parts of the United States. The recent
weakness in the US dollar is also helping demand from
foreign buyers. Soybean option premiums are high.
1/21/11 Soybean futures prices followed the trend of most of
the other commodity markets as they sold off violently in
anticipation that China will step up its efforts to quell
inflation by making it harder to get money out of its main
banks by increasing reserve requirements and raising
interest rates.
1/7/11 Soybean futures prices continue to sell off this week
as the US dollar continues to strengthen as new Eurozone
problems continue to add uncertainty in the markets. Heavier
grain sales usually occur after January 1 as farmers delay
sales to spread out the tax liability to the next year. Last
year's grain markets hit their lows in February.
12/24/10 Soybean futures prices came down this week. The
week before and after Christmas are notoriously thinly
traded and the markets can have very volatile price swings
because of the lack of trading volume. Many money managers
call it quits for the year in early December to lock in
before year end.
12/17/10 Soybean futures prices have been running again as
China is buying it seems when the dry weather in Brazil
might may the crop smaller and backing off when rains come
as expected this week. Bad weather may drive demand toward
the US crop.
12/3/10 Soybean futures prices have been running this week
as the European Union has decided to give Ireland the loan
it needs so that it won't have to default on its debt. Also
helping the market is the idea that the worst of the
problems in the United States are in the past and its
economy will likely begin to grow at a better pace than
expected. There is also the idea that capital gains taxes
and taxes on dividends will not be implemented now that
republicans are in charge.
11/19/10 Soybean futures prices sold off again this week as
China raised interest rates in an attempt to slow its
overheating economy and inflation. Also pressuring the
commodity markets was the idea that Ireland may default on
loans might lead to more Eurozone economic problems coming
soon.
11/12/10 Soybean futures prices are correcting significantly
after the huge run up in prices. The most prevelant
perception is that the global recovery may be stalling based
on worse than expected economic reports as of late and the
idea that China will hike interest rates to battle inflation
which should push commodities lower.
11/5/10 Soybean futures prices are still heading higher as
the FOMC meeting yielded more quantitative easing by the
Fed. Printing more money should lead to high inflation or
hyperinflation for the next few years. Especially when you
consider the fact that the Fed bought so much of the toxic
real estate assets from Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. It makes
sense that they won't raise rates to fight inflation because
it would cost the government billions of dollars.
10/22/10 Soybean futures prices are still running this week
in spite of the recent strength in the US Dollar and
excellent crop harvests. The harvest is about 60% done and
the crop looks good. Export demand, especially from China is
still strong.
10/15/10 Soybean futures prices are still near the recent
highs as small US supplies and strong export demand from
foreign buyers especially China. Moisture may be coming to
Brazil soon. Soybean options volatility premiums are high.
10/8/10 Soybean futures prices rallied this week as the US
dollar came crashing down to new lows. The recent USDA
report showed US production down 2% to 340.8 million
bushels. This is an average yield per acre of 44.4 bushels.
The market reaction to this report is limit up prices.
9/24/10 Soybean futures prices are still running higher with
corn and wheat. Concerns about dry weather in Brazil which
may impact planting, potential freeze damage to the Canadian
canola crop, frost in China's soybean producing regions are
pushing prices.
9/17/10 Soybean futures prices are rallying as corn prices
hit new 23 month highs. The soybean harvest is begining to
get going and the market is expecting strong yields in the
US and a good crop out of China.
9/10/10 Soybean futures prices rallied to a 9 month high
based on strong export demand and uncertainty about the crop
size and yields this year because of unusually wet weather
in many growing areas. The recent USDA report showed US
soybean production at 348 million bushels.
8/20/10 Soybean futures prices came down this week as better
weather is helping the pod filling stage of much of the crop
which is expected to be huge. A huge crop is expected in
spite of the occurances of sudden death syndrome in parts of
Iowa which can cut crop yields very quickly and
substantially.
8/13/10 Soybean futures prices rallied again this week in
spite of the USDA's prediction for all time record yields
and the recent strength in the US Dollar. On the bull's side
is the facts that China is still buying beans and the crop
is in its critical pod filling stage and will need moisture
to avoid yield losses.
8/6/10 Soybean futures prices rallied again this week to 7
month highs as a weather premium is added to prices based on
the idea that yields in the US Delta region will be hurt by
bad weather. The recent weakness in the US Dollar is also
helping demand.
8/2/10 Soybean futures prices are rallying again to a 6
month high as Chinese demand is robust and tight old crop
supplies are combining with hot dry weather in the US Delta
region. This bad weather is coming at a critical growth
stage for the crop and may hurt yields.
7/24/10 Soybean futures prices managed to rally this week in
spite of weakness in corn. The crop is a a very critical
stage in its development, the flowering stage. The recent
weakness in the US Dollar may also be bringing buyers to the
US markets as old crop supplies are tight.
7/10/10 Soybean futures prices rallied 60 cents, a 9 week
high, this week as the market digests the recent USDA
acreage report. The recent USDA supply and demand report
showed US ending stocks at 360 million bushels and world
ending stocks rise from 67 to 68 million tons. The 2009-10
exports came in up 19% from a year ago.
7/2/10 Soybean futures prices are trading sideways this week
as the USDA planted acreage and grain stocks report showed a
record high acreage of 78.78 million acres with is up 2%
from a year ago and higher than traders expected. The grain
stocks report showed 571 million bushels which is down 4%
from a year ago. Good weather and the stronger US Dollar are
also keeping prices sideways for now.
6/25/10 Soybean futures prices are selling off this week in
spite of the recent Midwest flooding and the fact that China
just bought another 120,000 tons of US soybeans. The recent
sell off in the US Dollar may also help demand for US
grains.
6/11/10 Soybean futures prices are trading sideways and
lower this week as record high crop ratings and excellent
weather pushed the November contract to an 8 month low. The
recent USDA report showed US ending stocks come down from
356 to 360 million bushels and world ending stocks rose from
66 to 67 million tons.
6/4/10 Soybean futures prices sold off this week as the
higher US Dollar, lack of demand from China and good weather
throughout the Midwest is pressuring prices.
5/28/10 Soybean futures prices rallied this week as the good
looking crop and good weather is battliing the lack of
farmer selling to find a direction in the markets.
5/21/10 Soybean futures prices came down with the rest of the
commodity markets this week as the European problems
stemming from Greece and the other PIIGS are expected to
hurt demand for many commodities. Investors seem to be
choosing cash over stocks and commodities for now. Good
growing weather is pressuring new crop prices and tight old
crop supplies are keeping the July contract a bit firmer.
5/14/10 Soybean futures prices are ranging sideways this
week. The recent USDA report showed US ending stocks at 365
million bushels up from 190 million bushels. The world
ending stocks came in at 66 million tons up from 64 million
tons.
5/7/10 Soybean futures prices sold off this week as the
Greece problems are decreasing investors' risk appetite
coupled with the potential for the oil spill in the Gulf of
Mexico may impact grain traffic in a negative way. Also
affecting the grain markets are the good weather and good
planting progress in the grain belt.
4/25/10 Soybean futures prices rallied this week along with
many other commodities as the idea that many economies
around the globe including the United States are begining to
strengthen. Recent planting progress has been coming along
well.
4/16/10 Soybean futures prices rallied this week as the US
Dollar has been weakening and the planting season is
beginning for the grain belt. China bought 120,000 tons so
far for the current marketing season.
4/9/10 Soybean futures prices are trading higher this week
on the idea that many global economies around the world are
improving and demand for US soybean may increase, especially
if the Chinese Yuan is not pegged to the US Dollar anymore.
3/27/10 Soybean futures prices are still trading sideways
pressured by the excellent weather and soil moisture
throughout most of the grain belt. The strengthening US
Dollar is also making rallies difficult.
2/26/10 Soybean futures prices came down this week from the
highs as the recent strength in the US Dollar and the weak
US economic reports have been putting a lid on rallies.
However, China supposedly bought 2 cargoes of South American
soybeans this week. Soybean option premiums are high.
2/12/10 Soybean futures prices rallied this week as the USDA
report showed US ending stocks down from 245 to 210 million
bushels and world ending stocks down from 59.8 to 59.7
million tons. Also helping prices is the idea that Europe
will help Greece with its financial problems.
2/5/10 Soybean futures prices came down again this week
along with most of the other commodity markets as the recent
strength in the US Dollar is expected to diminish demand for
commodities. The recent attempts to tighten monetary policy
in China is also hurting prices as China is the number one
buyer of soybeans.
1/30/10 Soybean futures prices came down again this week as
the strength in the US Dollar continues to pressure the
grain markets. The idea that big South American crops and
better weather in Argentina pushed soybean prices to the
lowest levels in 4 months.
1/22/10 Soybean futures prices came down this week along
with most other commodity markets as the idea that China is
trying to restrain its economy by raising rates and
increasing the capital reserves its banks must keep will
diminish demand.
1/15/10 Soybean futures prices sold off this week as the
USDA supply and demand report showed US ending stocks fell
from 255 million bushels to 245 million bushels and the
world ending stocks when from 57 million tons to 60 million
tons. The recent Brazilian estimate was raised from 63
million tons to 65 million tons. Soybean option premiums are
high.
1/8/10 Soybean futures prices sold off this week as the
recent strength in the US Dollar and the news from Brazil
that they will plant a record crop this year put the bears
in charge.
1/1/10 Soybean futures prices ran up almost a dollar per
bushel over the last month or so based on the weak US Dollar
and strong 2009-10 exports because of the seemingly
insatiable Chinese appetite for soybeans this year. Soybean
options premiums are high.
12/11/09 Soybean futures prices sold off about 28 cents this
week as the US Dollar continues to strengthen. The recent
USDA report showed US ending stocks down from 270 to 255
million bushels. The world ending stocks came in unchanged
from last month at 57 million tons.
12/4/09 Soybean futures prices sold off this week and the
upbeat US jobs report pushing the US Dollar up dramatically
also helped weaken prices.
11/28/09 Soybean futures prices rallied this week as the US
Dollar hit an 18 month low making US grains look very cheap
to consumers using foreign currencies to buy them. Strong
Chinese demand and excessive rain in Iowa and Missouri are
hindering crop progress and also supporting stronger soybean
prices. Soybean option premiums are high.
11/20/09 Soybean futures prices rallied again this week as
the harvest is still behind schedule and more rain is
expected to hinder harvest even further. The current harvest
is behind the 5 year average. China is still buying soybeans
and the US Dollar just hit another contract low this week
which makes US soybeans look cheap to foreign buyers.
11/13/09 Soybean futures prices rallied this week as the
USDA estimated that US ending stocks rose from 230 million
bushels to 270 million bushels and estimated that world
ending stocks went from 55 million tons to 57 million tons.
11/6/09 Soybean futures prices sold off this week as dry
weather is expected throughout the grain belt helping
farmers catch up on the harvest progress before any damaging
cold weather comes in. Next week's USDA report is expected
to show lower yields because of the harvest delays.
10/24/09 Soybean futures prices rallied as cold and wet
weather is hindering harvest progress throughout the Midwest
and the Mississippi Delta region. The USDA estimates the the
crop is only 30% harvested which is way behind the average
for this time of year.
10/12/09 Soybean futures prices rallied this week as the
planting delays from earlier in the season are leaving
soybean acres vulnerable to early from and the expectations
are for below average temperatures this week. The recent
USDA report showed US ending stocks increase from 220 to 230
million bushels and world ending stocks increase from 51 to
55 million tons.
9/25/09 Soybean futures prices sold off as the US Dollar
rallied off of its yearly lows and no frost scares until
October 3 at least are expected.
9/18/09 Soybean futures prices are rallying this week as the
potential for frost damage on the late planted crop may hurt
yield. The weakening US Dollar and the idea that the global
economy is improving is also helping prices.
9/11/09 Soybean futures prices are near the lows as no
threats of bad weather is offsetting the collapse in the US
Dollar. The USDA report showed US ending stocks up form 210
to 220 million bushels and the world ending stocks up from
50.3 to 50.5 million tons. The USDA world crop estimate
would make this crop the largest in history at 3.25 billion
bushels. Soybean option premiums are high.
9/4/09 Soybean futures prices are near the contract lows as
the lack of aggressive Chinese buying and no potential
freeze damage based on late plantings offsets the weakening
US Dollar and the general weakness in many commodities.
Soybean option premiums are high.
8/21/09 Soybean futures prices are trying to rally again as
the weaker US Dollar and China's recent buy of 118,000 tons
of US soybeans for the 2009-10 season is digested into the
market. Soybean option premiums are high.
8/7/09 Soybean futures prices have been rallying as the US
Dollar continues to fall and the perception that the global
economy may be improving are helping prices. Soybean option
premiums are high.
7/31/09 Soybean futures prices are still down in spite of
the recent Chinese buys and better economic news and the
lower US Dollar. Soybean option premiums are high.
7/20/09 Soybean futures prices are coming down again as
great weather seems to be offsetting news that China is
still buying US beans and the weakening US Dollar may help
export demand. Soybean option premiums are high.
7/10/09 Soybean futures prices sold off this week as the
USDA report for US ending stocks showed stocks up from 210
to 250 million bushels and world ending stocks up from 51 to
52 million tons. Soybean option premiums are high.
7/4/09 Soybean futures prices held steady versus the rest of
the grain complex as the USDA acreage report showed 77.48
million acres planted which was much lower than expected.
Soybean option premiums are high.
6/21/09 Soybean futures prices sold off dramatically along
with the rest of the grain markets. The potential for
farmers switching acreage over to soybean from corn because
of the recent wet weather and planting delays. Soybean
option premiums are high.
6/5/09 Soybean futures prices are still running as tight
supplies and the weakening US Dollar are making US soybeans
attractively priced. Soybean option premiums are high.
5/30/09 Soybean futures prices are running up as tight old
crop supplies, solid export demand and firm cash prices are
fueling a rally. The bearish camp believes that farmers will
have to shift some corn acreage over to soybeans because of
the planting delays earlier in the season. Soybean option
premiums are high.
5/22/09 Soybean futures prices are still rising as US
inventories are expected to be down to 130 million bushels
by the end of August. China recently bought 116,000 tons of
2009-10 soybeans. Soybean option premiums are high.
5/15/09 Soybean futures prices are still up as the USDA
report showed US ending stocks up form 130 to 230 million
tons and world ending stocks up form 43 to 52 million tons.
Soybean prices are now at a 7 month high. Soybean option
premiums are high.
5/8/09 Soybean futures prices are rallying still as
unseasonably wet and cool weather is hindering planting
progress. Also affecting prices are Argentina's farmers
holding onto their soybeans hoping that the new congress
will lower the export tariffs. The election is June 28.
Soybean option premiums are high.
4/30/09 Soybean futures prices have been rallying and made
up for the recent swine flu related sell off with a strong
rally. Soybean option premiums are high.
4/23/09 Soybean futures prices are rallying again up near
the $10.50 level as the bad South American crop and
excessive taxed is causing farmers to hold soybeans instead
of selling them. This has pushed China to buy US soybeans.
Soybean option premiums are high.
4/10/09 Soybean futures prices are running as China bought
110,000 tons of US soybeans. The recent USDA report showed
US ending stocks down from 185 to 165 million bushels and
world ending stocks down from 50 to 46 million tons. Brazil
and Argentina are also expected to see a production decrease
of 10% versus last years output. Soybean option premiums are
high.
3/27/09 Soybean futures prices are rising as farmers in
Argentina are refusing to sell their beans and China's
recent buy of 110,000 tons. Traders are also waiting for the
USDA planting intentions report coming out March 31.
3/20/09 Soybean futures prices rallied 70 cents this week as
inflation may soon replace the deflationary cycle which is
the worst since the Great Depression that we are currently
in. The recent move by the Fed to print a trillion dollars
and use them to buy treasuries significantly decreased the
value to the US Dollar. Soybean option premiums are high.
3/13/09 Soybean futures prices rallied this week based on
the USDA supply and demand report estimate that US ending
stocks were down 25 million bushels since last month.
Soybean option premiums are high.
3/7/09 Soybean futures prices are still trading sideways as
the potential for another strike by Argentina's farmers may
be imminent. Soybean option premiums are high.
2/27/09 Soybean futures prices are trading sideways this
week as a lack of fundamental news did not give traction for
the bulls or the bears. The Argentina strike threats have
not affected prices to any large degree. Soybean option
premiums are high.
2/13/09 Soybean futures prices are still trading sideways in
spite of the USDA report showing US ending stocks down form
225 to 210 million bushels and world ending stocks down from
54 to 50 million tons. China also bought 120,000 tons of US
soybeans and South American production is expected to be
down 6% from last year. Soybean option premiums are high.
2/6/09 Soybean futures prices are trading sideways in a $1
range as drought conditions in Argentina are being remedied
by copious amounts of rainfall and expectations of more to
come. China said that they will be buying another 2.5 metric
tons of new crop soybeans. The USDA predicts that the
Argentine soybean crop will be down by 7 million tons this
year. Soybean option premiums are high.
1/30/09 Soybean futures prices have recently paused the
uptrend that was mainly caused by the drought conditions
affecting many soybean growing areas in Argentina. Right now
in South America the soybeans are going through the critical
pod filling stage of their development which requires a
greater amount of moisture or yield damage will occur.
Soybean option premiums are high.
1/16/09 Soybean futures prices sold off after the USDA
report showed builds in supplies. This comes after a two
dollar rally in prices. The US ending stocks were up from
205 to 225 million bushels and world ending stocks were at
54 million tons. Soybean option premiums are high.
1/10/09 Soybean futures prices rallied this week based on
China buying 232,000 tons of US soybeans and dry weather in
South America. Soybean option premiums are high.
12/27/08 Soybean futures prices rallied this week on news
that Argentina and Southern Brazil are experiencing hot and
dry weather. Soybean option premiums are high.
12/19/08 Soybean futures prices are following the US
Dollar's moves up and down. Strong days for the dollar
usually mean weaker prices for soybeans and vice versa.
Soybean option premiums are high.
12/12/08 Soybean futures prices rallied with the rest of the
commodity markets as the US Dollar fell sharply from its
highs. The USDA estimates US ending stocks at 205 million
bushels and world ending stocks at 54 million tons. Soybean
option premiums are high.
12/05/08 Soybean futures prices are near contract lows this
week as Argentina finally received necessary soil moisture
for the crop. Prices fell in spite of strong export demand.
Soybean option premiums are high.
11/30/08 Soybean futures prices are trading sideways as the
potential for continued deflation may hurt demand. Soybean
option premiums are high.
11/21/08 Soybean futures prices are still coming down and
the harvest is almost complete. Exports are running ahead of
last year. Soybean option premiums are high.
11/7/08 Soybean futures prices are down as the US Dollar is
strong and the recent Blizzard is not expected to have done
much damage to soybean growing areas of the mid-west.
Soybean option premiums are high.
11/1/08 Soybean futures prices are down in spite of the
harvest being behind the 5 year average. The liquidation of
commodity index funds and the strong US Dollar are keeping a
lid on rallies. Soybean option premiums are high.
10/24/08 Soybean futures prices are still falling with the
rest of the commodity markets as massive deleveraging of the
stocks and commodities continues. The repatriation of
dollars back into the US from other countries is helping the
rise of the US Dollar to 3 year highs. The problems in
Argentina considering the nationalization of pensions by the
government. Soybean option premiums are still high.
10/10/08 Soybean futures prices sold off with the USDA
report showing US ending stocks up form 135 to 220
million bushels and the world ending stocks up from 51 to 55
million tons. This report showed a huge unexpected increase
in US supplies. This increase coupled with the strong US
Dollar is hurting the grain sector. Soybean option premiums
are high.
10/6/08 Soybean futures prices are near $9. The flight to
liquidity, fears of a global recession and the strong US
Dollar are hurting soybean prices. Soybean option premiums
are high.
9/26/08 Soybean futures prices are falling again in spite of
the fact that China bought 230,000 tons of soybeans from the
US and the near term tightness in old crop stocks and the
delay in harvest in the flood stricken and wet parts of the
grain belt. Soybean option premiums are high.
9/19/08 Soybean futures prices fell again this week as a
rush for liquidity pulled most commodity markets down. Ideal
harvest weather is also helping yields. Soybean option
premiums are high.
9/12/08 Soybean futures prices fell this week based on the
strong US Dollar. The USDA report showed US ending stocks
the same as last month at 135 million bushels and the world
ending stocks up to 51 million tons from 49 million tons
last month. Soybean option premiums are high.
9/5/08 Soybean futures prices fell this week as the
beneficial rains from Hurricane Gustav are really helping
out the moisture deficits of many growing areas. The rally
in the US Dollar is also pressuring prices. Soybean option
premiums are high.
8/29/08 Soybean futures prices are trying to rally this week
based on the run up in crude oil prices and the dry weather
in the US grain belt and Argentina. The recent strength in
the US Dollar is keeping prices in a range. Soybean option
premiums are high.
8/22/08 Soybean futures prices rallied over a dollar this
week based on the correction in the US Dollar rally and the
dry weather in the grain belt that may potentially hurt
yields. Soybean option premiums are high.
8/15/08 Soybean futures prices sold off this week in spite
of the USDA report showing a decrease in US stocks from 140
to 135 million bushels and the world ending stocks showing a
slight increase from 48.9 to 49.3 million tons. Soybean
option premiums are high.
8/8/08 Soybean futures prices sold off this week based on
nearly perfect weather in the grain belt. Soybean prices
have now corrected by $4 from the June high. Soybean option
premiums are high.
7/25/08 Soybean futures prices sold off this week again as
good growing conditions throughout the grain belt will most
likely cause higher yields for the new crop. Soybean option
premiums are high.
7/18/08 Soybean futures prices sold off in the wake of the
broad based commodity sell off led by oil. Good growing
weather throughout the grain belt may help yields climb. The
USDA reported that China bought 120,000 tons of soybeans for
2008-09. Soybean option premiums are high.
7/11/08 Soybean futures prices sold off initially this week
only to stage a rally based on the USDA estimates of
US ending stocks being down from 175 to 140 million bushels
and world ending stocks falling from 50 to 49 million tons.
Soybean option premiums are high.
7/4/08 Soybean futures prices rallied to a new all time high
as the USDA report showed tight soybean stocks potentially
persisting into the new crop supplies. Soybean option
premiums are high.
6/27/08 Soybean futures prices rallied back up this week as
the grain belts flood damage is assessed. The grains were
also helped by the Federal Reserve Bank's inaction
concerning interest rates which caused the US Dollar to drop
sharply. Soybean option premiums are high.
6/20/08 Soybean futures prices sold off
from its highs as the panic buying because of the mid west
flooding may be factored into the price. The flooding is
almost as bad as the 1993 floods and 2 million soybean acres
are estimated to be lost because of the floods. The
Argentina strike issues are still helping hold up prices.
Soybean option premiums are high.
6/13/08 Soybean futures prices rallied
again this week as flooding in the corn belt caused all time
high corn futures prices this week and the fact that some
soybean fields will probably have to be replanted. The USDA
supply and demand report reduced US ending stocks from 185
to 175 million bushels. Soybean option premiums are high.
6/6/08 Soybean futures prices rallied
this week based on the sell off in the US Dollar and
planting delays. Strong exports from Asia are also helping
prices. Soybean option premiums are high.
5/30/08 Soybean futures prices are
trading sideways this week. The USDA reports that 52% of the
crop is planted which is below the 5 year average of 67%.
Soybean option premiums are high.
5/23/08 Soybean futures prices sold off
again this week as the Argentina farmer strike issues look
to be settled soon. The USDA reports that 27% of the
soybeans are planted which is down from the 5 year average
of 47%. Soybean option premiums are high.
5/15/08 Soybean futures prices sold off
from the highs in sympathy with corn. Soybean acres may drop
because of the good planting weather expectations over the
next week. Soybean options premiums are high.
5/9/08 Soybean futures prices rallied
this week because of huge global demand numbers and the
strike in Argentina is expected to start up again sending
buyers to the US. The USDA supply and demand report
estimates that the US ending stocks for soybeans are 185
million bushels which is up from 145 million bushels in
2007-08. Soybean option premiums are high.
5/1/08 Soybean futures prices sold off
this week based on the perception that less corn will be
planted because of bad weather and farmers will be forced to
plant soybeans. Soybean option premiums are high.
4/25/08 Soybean futures prices sold off
this week based on a lack of new bullish news and the rally
in the US Dollar. Brazil has already sold 67% of its crop
and export demand to China is still robust. Soybean option
premiums are still very high.
4/18/08 Soybean futures prices rallied
this week on massive speculative fund buying but profit
taking put a lid on prices. One bullish note is the
potential for the Argentinian farmers strike to get started
again because negotiations are not working out. China's
first quarter GDP rose by over 10%. Soybean
option premiums are very high.
4/11/08 Soybean futures prices rallied
this week because the Argentina farmers strike is expected
to begin again. Also helping prop up soybean futures prices
is huge Chinese buying of US soybeans. The soybean option
premiums are very high.
4/4/08 Soybean futures prices had
another wild ride this week. Down limit on Monday and
rallying ever since. The USDA report showed acreage up 18%
from a year ago and stockpiles down 20%. The strike in
Argentina is over and China made a huge soybean buy this
week. Soybean option premiums are very high.
3/28/08 Soybean futures prices had a
wild ride this week. 2008 planting is not expected to
replenish stockpiles to comfortable levels and since March 4
the farmers in Argentina have been on strike. The USDA
prospective plantings report is coming out on March 31.
Soybean option premiums are high.
3/21/08 Soybean futures prices kept
falling this week as Wall Street hedge funds and commodity
funds liquidated futures positions to cover margin calls in
stocks and to pay back borrowed money. The Bear Stearns
issue took the confidence from investors. The Fed's 75 basis
point cut surprised investors because a full 100 basis point
cut was expected. Soybean option premiums are high.
3/14/08 Soybean futures prices are
consolidation sideways near all time highs. The USDA report
showed US ending stocks down from 160 million bushels to
140. Many farmers are expected to plant soybeans at the
expense of corn this planting season. The next major report
is on March 31 and is the prospective plantings/quarterly
stock report. Soybean options premiums are high.
3/7/08 Soybean futures prices hit
another contract high this week before following the other
commodities lower in a broad based commodity sell off. The
USDA report on 3/11/08 is expected to show an increase in
soybean and wheat acres expectations by US farmers. China's
largest soybean producing province just had its worst
drought and is expected to plant less soybeans. Soybean
option premiums are high.
2/29/08 Soybean futures prices hit
another contract and all time high this week based on dry
weather in Brazil and talk of soybean exporters around the
world slowing exports in an effort to diminish food
inflation. The US coast guard had to close down the
Mississippi river 45 miles from the mouth because of a
marine related accident. Soybean option premiums are high.
2//22/08 Soybean futures prices hit all
time highs this week based on Chinese demand and in spite of
Brazil and Argentina getting much needed rain. The USDA's
planted acreage report showed soybean planted acreage up 12%
to 71 million acres as farmers choose the most profitable
crop to plant. However, there is still plenty of time to
change their minds until planting is over. Soybean option
premiums are high.
2/15/08 Soybean futures prices were
higher this week in spite of the USDA long term projected
2008-9 soybean production estimates being up 14%. There were
also rumors of China buying a couple of cargoes of soybeans.
The high soy oil demand from China is probably based on the
fact that their rapeseed crop was badly damaged by Winter
storms. Soybean option premiums are high.
2/8/08 Soybean futures prices are near
their all time high and the USDA report showed a decrease in
US and global stocks. Also helping the rally is the lack of
quality soy seed which may threaten soybean acreage
expansion this year. Soybeans futures prices seem unaffected
by the strengthening US dollar but February is typically a
soft month for grain futures prices. Soybean option premiums
are high.
2/1/08 The soybean futures prices hit
a 34 year high because of higher global demand and the
falling US Dollar is helping exports. The USDA report showed
a reduction in global stocks to 46.2 million tons which is
called to pressure soybean futures prices higher. The long term effect of increased bio diesel demand are still unknown for soybean
futures prices. New soybean rust infestations in the US and
Brazil are also affecting
soybean futures prices.
-T & K Futures and Options Inc. |
