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Commodity Investment Research--Futures Market Research 

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Calendar : August 25- August 29

 

Aug 25  - 11:00 EDT Export Inspections-4:00 Crop Progress

Aug 26 -  10:00 EDT Consumer Confidence-New Home Sales

Aug 27 - 8:30 EDT Advanced Durable Goods-10:30 EIA/API Energy Stocks Report

Aug 28 - 8:30 EDT Export Sales-GDP (Q2 '08)-Jobless Claims- 10:30 EIA Weekly Gas Storage report and energy stocks

Aug 29- 8:30 EDT Personal Income-10:00 Existing Home Sales

 

Future Market Research - Commodity Investment Research
 

Energies:  The crude oil futures sold off from all time highs this week. There is still uneasiness about the Russian invasion of Georgia, tight global supplies and Iran causing problems that might disrupt oil production or distribution. Nearly 20% of the world's oil has to come through the Strait of Hormuz and Iran could block that. The US refining capacity has dropped in the last 20 years because a new refinery has not been built since 1976 which keeps distillate inventories low. US demand on the other hand has increased significantly during this same time period.  

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Metals:  Gold futures fell based on the strong US Dollar. Gold may find support because of increased industrial demand, lack of global production capacity, stagnant gold mine productions since 2000 and higher demand for jewelry. Barrick Gold the largest gold producer in the world expects production to be less in 2008 than in 2007.

Silver prices fell based on the rise of the US Dollar.

Copper futures are trading down because of the rise in the US Dollar. Copper prices are currently holding the $3.30 level. 

Grains:   Soybeans sold off this week based on good weather and the strong US Dollar. Corn sold off precipitously from its all time highs. Wheat continues to fall in expectation of a huge world crop.  

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Exotics:  Coffee sold off to the 1.32 level in spite of dry weather, fund buying and the Brazilian government letting farmers hold back supplies but rain sent the market crashing back down.

Sugar prices sold off to the 12.80 cent level because of falling unleaded gas and corn prices.

Orange Juice sold off dramatically from its 15 year high in spite of the small size of the Florida orange juice crop, citrus canker and damage to mature trees over the last few hurricane seasons. The current crop forecast is predicted to be the smallest in 18 years.

Cocoa sold off to $2700. Cocoa shipments are being disrupted by the Nigerian strike and Ghana is expected to produce 30% less than previous estimates this year because of black pod disease and problems with disease in Indonesia's crop. Trouble is the Ivory Coast, where 50% of the world's cocoa comes from, should still be monitored closely.

Meats  The feeder cattle and live cattle futures are rallying to contract highs. 

Financials:   Interest rate sensitive futures reacted to the rate cut to bail out the sub-prime loans. There seems to be a global trend for higher short term interest rates.

Currencies:  The US Dollar is selling off near all-time lows based on China and other countries minimizing US Dollar holdings in favor of diversifying with other currencies. These concerns within the Asian banks about the weakening dollar and the perceived need to diversify some of there assets in non US currency holdings are becoming a self fulfilling prophecy and weakening the dollar even more. Most of the other major currencies are not expected to raise rates soon.

 

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Futures and options trading is risky and can result in losses. Futures and options trading is not for everyone and only risk capital should be used. Options, cash and futures markets are separate and do not necessarily respond in the same way to a similar market stimuli. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown in fact there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading.
 

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The information presented in this commodity futures and options site is not investment advice and is for informational purposes only. Investments in commodity futures and options involves a high degree of risk, your investment may fall as well as rise, you may lose all your original investment and you may also have to pay more than the original amount invested. Consult your broker or advisor prior to making any investment decisions. Past or simulated performance is not a guide to future performance. Futures Trading is not suitable for everyone. This site provides information on commodity trading, commodity futures, commodity options, futures trading, commodity brokerage.